- Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another leads all films with 9 Golden Globe nominations
- Kalshi prediction markets have the film at 89% to win Best Picture Musical/Comedy
- Read below for the complete betting breakdown and odds across major categories
The 2026 Golden Globe nominations dropped Monday morning, and Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is running the table.
Anderson’s political thriller scored nine nominations, including Best Picture Musical/Comedy, Best Director, and acting nods for Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Benicio Del Toro, and Chase Infiniti. The film has already swept early critics groups, taking top prizes from the National Board of Review, Gotham Awards, and New York Film Critics Circle.
Kalshi, the regulated prediction market platform, is offering trading on Golden Globe winners, and the numbers aren’t pretty for anyone betting against Anderson’s film. Traders are putting real money where their predictions are, and One Battle After Another is sitting at 89% to win Best Picture Musical/Comedy.
Ahead of the 83rd Golden Globes on Sunday, January 11, 2026, let’s break down who the Kalshi prediction markets favor winning in each major category.
Jump to: Best Picture Comedy | Best Picture Drama | Best Director | Best Actor Drama | Best Actress Drama | Best Actor Comedy | Best Actress Comedy | TV Drama | TV Comedy | TV Limited Series
How Kalshi Prediction Markets Work
Kalshi operates differently than traditional sportsbooks. Instead of oddsmakers setting lines, traders buy and sell contracts on specific outcomes. If One Battle After Another wins Best Picture Musical/Comedy, contracts pay out $1. If it loses, they’re worth nothing.
The current price reflects what traders believe the probability is. A contract trading at 89 cents means the market sees an 89% chance of that outcome happening. It’s not Vegas setting a line. It’s real money from people backing their predictions.
The percentages below come directly from Kalshi’s current trading prices as of December 9, 2025.
Best Motion Picture Musical/Comedy Odds & Prediction
All percentages as of December 9, 2025 at Kalshi Sportsbook. Sign up with a Kalshi promo code to make your own Golden Globes predictions.
One Battle After Another Running Away With It
The Kalshi markets aren’t being subtle about this one. One Battle After Another is trading at 89% to win Best Picture Musical/Comedy. When prediction markets get this lopsided, they’re usually right.
Anderson’s film about a former revolutionary forced out of hiding when his daughter gets kidnapped has become the runaway favorite of awards season. The next closest competitor is Marty Supreme with Timothée Chalamet at just 16%. Everything else is under 5%.
Kalshi operates differently than traditional sportsbooks. Instead of oddsmakers setting lines, traders buy and sell contracts on specific outcomes. If One Battle After Another wins, contracts pay out $1. If it loses, they’re worth nothing. The current 89-cent price means the market sees an 89% chance Anderson’s film takes home the trophy.
With nine total nominations and early wins at the National Board of Review, Gotham Awards, and New York Film Critics Circle, there’s no reason to bet against it.
Best Motion Picture Drama Odds & Prediction
Sinners vs. Hamnet: The Only Real Race Left
Unlike the Musical/Comedy category, the Drama race is actually competitive. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners leads at 42%, with Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet close behind at 38%. That’s a four-point spread. This one could go either way.
Sinners grabbed seven nominations total, including nods for Michael B. Jordan playing dual roles as twin brothers, Coogler for Best Director, and Ludwig Göransson for Best Original Score. The vampire thriller set in the Jim Crow South has earned over $367 million worldwide and won over critics with its bold genre-blending approach. African American film critics named it Best Film of 2025.
Hamnet secured six nominations and features Jessie Buckley in what’s being called her career-defining performance as Agnes, mourning the death of Shakespeare’s son. It’s the prestige literary adaptation voters typically reward, based on Maggie O’Farrell’s best-selling novel.
The Kalshi odds show traders see this as a coin flip between genre ambition and traditional prestige. Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value sits at 9% despite eight total nominations, making it the potential spoiler if the top two split votes.
Best Director Odds & Prediction
Paul Thomas Anderson’s Coronation Moment
The Kalshi markets have spoken, and they’re not being coy about it. Paul Thomas Anderson sits at 85% to win Best Director. After decades of critical acclaim without matching hardware, this is finally his moment.
Chloé Zhao trails at 12% for Hamnet, which could benefit if voters decide to spread the wealth rather than let Anderson sweep. Ryan Coogler’s at 6% for Sinners, but the odds show traders see Anderson as close to inevitable.
The market’s basically pricing in an Anderson win and leaving a small window for an upset. That 85% number means traders are betting heavily on the obvious outcome.
Best Actor Drama Odds & Prediction
Wagner Moura Leading, But Jordan’s 20% Matters
Wagner Moura dominates the Kalshi markets at 79% for The Secret Agent, playing a haunted Brazilian operative in Neon’s political thriller. The narrative of a Brazilian star breaking big in a major international production plays exceptionally well with Golden Globe voters.
But don’t ignore Michael B. Jordan’s 20% for Sinners. That number matters more than it looks. Jordan’s playing dual roles as twin brothers in Ryan Coogler’s vampire epic, and the technical difficulty combined with the film’s momentum makes him the only credible threat to Moura.
The Rock scored his first-ever Golden Globe nomination for The Smashing Machine, gaining 32 pounds and wearing 23 prosthetics daily to transform into troubled MMA fighter Mark Kerr. But at less than 1% on Kalshi, the market sees him as a longshot.
Best Actress Drama Odds & Prediction
Jessie Buckley’s Award to Lose
This one’s over. Jessie Buckley sits at 96% on Kalshi to win Best Actress Drama for Hamnet. That’s the most lopsided odds in any acting category.
Buckley’s portrayal of Agnes, mourning the death of her son Hamnet, has been universally praised as a career-defining performance. Renate Reinsve trails at just 2% for Sentimental Value, making this the safest bet across all categories.
Julia Roberts landed a nomination for After the Hunt despite the film being a critical and commercial flop. The Globes just can’t quit a megastar, apparently. But the Kalshi markets give her basically zero chance.
Best Actor Musical/Comedy Odds & Prediction
Timothée Chalamet’s Time to Win
Timothée Chalamet dominates at 69% on Kalshi for Marty Supreme. Josh Safdie’s ping-pong biopic currently holds a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes, and Chalamet recently declared it his “best performance” yet.
This is Chalamet’s fifth Golden Globe acting nomination without a win. The narrative is strong, and the market agrees.
Leonardo DiCaprio’s basically a non-factor despite starring in the heavily-favored One Battle After Another. The Kalshi odds have voters honoring the film itself in Best Picture while spreading individual acting awards elsewhere. DiCaprio’s already a three-time Globe winner anyway.
Best Actress Musical/Comedy Odds & Prediction
Rose Byrne Having Her Moment
Rose Byrne leads at 48% on Kalshi for her visceral turn as a therapist spiraling into a breakdown in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Her recent win with the Los Angeles Film Critics Association only cemented her frontrunner status.
Emma Stone sits at 20% for Bugonia, her latest collaboration with Yorgos Lanthimos. Amanda Seyfried’s at 17% for The Testament of Ann Lee. This is a three-horse race with Byrne out in front.
Cynthia Erivo’s 6% for Wicked: For Good is rough considering the film’s massive box office. But the sequel getting shut out of Best Picture Musical/Comedy means voters aren’t as enthusiastic about Part 2 as they were about the original.
Best Supporting Actor Odds & Prediction
Most Competitive Race of the Night
This is the only category where the Kalshi markets show real uncertainty. Stellan Skarsgård leads at 37% for Sentimental Value, playing the patriarch of a dysfunctional family of Norwegian actors. Benicio Del Toro trails at 32% for One Battle After Another, with co-star Sean Penn at 20%.
The split between two actors from the same film could benefit Skarsgård, but Del Toro’s veteran status makes him a credible threat. This category could go multiple directions on awards night.
Best Supporting Actress Odds & Prediction
Teyana Taylor Out in Front
Teyana Taylor leads at 44% on Kalshi for One Battle After Another. Her performance in Anderson’s political thriller has earned widespread praise and positions her as the frontrunner.
Amy Madigan sits at 22% for Weapons, while Ariana Grande’s at 14% for Wicked: For Good. Grande and co-star Cynthia Erivo made history as the first actors nominated twice for the same roles, but the sequel’s mixed reception with voters may limit Grande’s chances.
Best Screenplay Odds & Prediction
One Battle After Another Leads Best Screenplay Odds
One Battle After Another leads at 30%, but Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident sits close behind at 27%. This is almost a toss-up between the two films.
Hamnet sits at 18% while Sentimental Value is at 17%. The closeness of these odds means voters could spread the wealth if Anderson’s film dominates the major categories.
Best Original Score Odds & Prediction
Sinners Running Away With Best Original Score
Ludwig Göransson’s score for Sinners dominates at 69% on Kalshi. Göransson has become one of Hollywood’s most sought-after composers and earned widespread acclaim for his work on Ryan Coogler’s vampire thriller.
Jonny Greenwood trails at 15% for One Battle After Another. Greenwood’s collaboration with Paul Thomas Anderson has produced some of the most memorable film scores in recent years, but Göransson’s work has emerged as the clear frontrunner.
Best Animated Feature Odds & Prediction
KPop Demon Hunters Leading Best Animated Feature
Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters leads at 66% on Kalshi. The film grabbed three total nominations, including Cinematic and Box Office Achievement and Best Original Song for “Golden,” which dominated the Billboard Hot 100 for eight weeks.
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain trails at 16%, while Arco sits at 9%. Disney’s Zootopia 2 is considered a longshot at less than 1% despite the studio’s historical dominance in animation.
The Wicked Snub
Wicked: For Good scored five nominations but completely missed Best Picture Musical/Comedy. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande both received acting nods, along with nominations for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement and two Original Song nods. But the sequel itself got shut out of the top category, and director Jon M. Chu missed Best Director.
The box office numbers are massive. The critical reception was strong. But voters clearly see the sequel more as a performance showcase than a top-tier film overall. The exclusion is especially jarring given the first film’s six-nomination run last year.
Best Television Series Drama Odds & Prediction
The Pitt Leading Despite White Lotus Hype
The Pitt leads the Kalshi markets at 57%, despite The White Lotus grabbing the most TV nominations with six total nods. The current Emmy drama champ only managed two Globe nominations (series and Noah Wyle for Best Actor).
The White Lotus sits at just 8% on Kalshi despite all the hype around its Thailand-set third season. The show earned acting nominations for Carrie Coon, Parker Posey, Aimee Lou Wood, Walton Goggins, and Jason Isaacs, but the markets aren’t buying it for Best Series.
Severance and Pluribus are basically tied at 23% and 24%. This is one of the more competitive categories on the TV side, with three shows sitting within 34 percentage points of each other.
Best Television Series Musical/Comedy Odds & Prediction
The Studio Running Away With Best Comedy Series
The Studio sits at 89% on Kalshi, mirroring One Battle After Another‘s dominance in the film comedy category. Apple TV+’s behind-the-scenes look at Hollywood has become the runaway favorite despite being a newcomer.
Hacks trails at 15%, with Jean Smart back in the mix and the show remaining a Globes favorite. But the gap is massive. Abbott Elementary sits at 5%, while The Bear, Only Murders in the Building, and Nobody Wants This are all at 4% or below.
This is one of the clearest races on the TV side. The Kalshi markets see The Studio as close to inevitable.
Best Limited/Anthology Series Odds & Prediction
Adolescence Dominating Limited Series
Netflix’s Adolescence sits at 90% on Kalshi, the highest percentage in any TV category. The British single-shot crime drama swept the Emmy Awards and grabbed five Globe nominations, including series and acting nods for Stephen Graham, Erin Doherty, Owen Cooper, and Ashley Walters.
Black Mirror trails at just 4%, with Dying for Sex at 3%. Awards bodies like to run in packs on limited series, and Adolescence already has all the momentum.
Best Supporting Actress Television Odds & Prediction
Closest TV Race of the Night
This is the most competitive category on the entire TV side. Erin Doherty leads at 44% for Adolescence, with Hannah Einbinder right behind at 40% for Hacks. That’s a four-point spread.
Doherty has the momentum from Adolescence sweeping the Emmys, but Einbinder has the Globes history with Hacks remaining a voter favorite. This one could genuinely go either way on awards night.
Key TV Acting Races
Best Actor Drama: Noah Wyle dominates at 81% for The Pitt, with Adam Scott trailing at 19% for Severance. Gary Oldman sits at 1% for Slow Horses. This is Wyle’s race to lose.
Best Actress Drama: Rhea Seehorn leads at 58% for Pluribus, with Britt Lower at 31% for Severance and Kathy Bates at 18% for Matlock. Seehorn has a moderate lead but Lower could pull the upset.
Best Actor Comedy: Seth Rogen sits at 79% for The Studio, with Martin Short at 21% for Only Murders in the Building and Jeremy Allen White at 10% for The Bear. Rogen’s the clear favorite, riding The Studio‘s wave.
Best Actress Comedy: Jean Smart dominates at 87% for Hacks. Jenna Ortega trails at 8% for Wednesday, with Ayo Edebiri at 7% for The Bear. Smart’s basically a lock.
Best Actor Limited Series: Stephen Graham leads at 82% for Adolescence, with Charlie Hunnam at 21% for Monster: The Ed Gein Story and Jude Law at 6% for Black Rabbit. Graham’s riding Adolescence‘s dominance.
Best Actress Limited Series: Michelle Williams sits at 70% for Dying for Sex, with Sarah Snook at 28% for All Her Fault and Claire Danes at 6% for The Beast in Me. Williams has the strongest lead here.
Best Supporting Actor TV: Owen Cooper leads at 80% for Adolescence, with Tramell Tillman at 22% for Severance and Jason Isaacs at 3% for The White Lotus. Cooper’s another beneficiary of Adolescence sweeping.
What the Kalshi Markets Are Saying
The prediction markets show clear dominance across multiple categories. On the film side, three races are basically over: Paul Thomas Anderson for Director (85%), Jessie Buckley for Actress Drama (96%), and One Battle After Another for Best Picture Musical/Comedy (89%).
Best Picture Drama between Sinners (42%) and Hamnet (38%) is the only real toss-up in the major film categories. Wagner Moura leads Best Actor Drama at 79%, but Michael B. Jordan’s 20% means traders see a legitimate upset path if Sinners continues gaining momentum.
On the TV side, the dominance is even more pronounced. Adolescence leads Limited Series at 90%, the highest percentage in any TV category. The Studio sits at 89% for Comedy Series, mirroring One Battle After Another‘s film comedy dominance. The Pitt leads Drama Series at 57%, though that race is more competitive with Severance and Pluribus both above 20%.
The closest race across all categories is Best Supporting Actress TV, where Erin Doherty (44%) and Hannah Einbinder (40%) are separated by just four points.
The 83rd Golden Globes air Sunday, January 11, 2026, on CBS and Paramount+, with Nikki Glaser returning to host. Between now and then, these prediction market numbers will shift as more voters see the films and critics awards roll in.
The message from Kalshi traders is clear. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Studio, and Adolescence are having a moment. And it’s going to take something extraordinary to stop them.
The post 2026 Golden Globe Nominations Released: See Who Will Win According to Prediction Markets appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
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