- Week 18 is unpredictable with starters sitting and backups getting their shot
- Trey Lance, Dylan Sampson, and Michael Mayer offer the best value this week
- My Week 18 prop picks with matchup breakdowns and early line projections
Week 18 is different from any other week. Half the league is resting starters, teams are tanking for draft picks, and backups are getting their first real action of the season. It’s unpredictable, but if you know what to look for, there’s real value in the NFL player props market.
Last week didn’t go our way. Mayfield came through with 232 yards against Miami, but Cook and Chase both missed. We’re sitting at 22-27 for the season.
Not where I wanted to be, but Week 18 gives us a chance to finish on a high note. I’ve got three props that make sense given who’s playing and who’s sitting.
NFL Week 18 Player Props to Target
Projected lines as of December 31st. Week 18 odds are subject to change as teams announce who’s sitting and playing. New customers can claim the FanDuel promo code and get a bonus to bet on NFL betting apps this week.
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NFL Player Prop Pick: Trey Lance Passing Yards
Lance is starting for the Chargers against Denver with Justin Herbert and multiple offensive linemen resting. This is a nightmare spot for a guy who’s completed just 7 of 13 passes for 90 scoreless yards all season.
The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks and rank top-five in both pass rush win rate and rush stop win rate. They’re playing for the number one seed in the AFC, so Denver’s defense will be fully motivated. Lance hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since the 2021 season, and now he’s facing an elite defense with a skeleton crew around him.
Jim Harbaugh confirmed the Chargers will rest “players with the most bruises,” which means Lance won’t have his full arsenal of weapons. The offensive line is already decimated by injuries. Now they’re resting key starters against the league’s best pass rush. Lance is going to be running for his life.
Historical context matters too. Teams resting starters as favorites are just 1-6-1 against the spread since 2012. Backup quarterbacks in rest games consistently underperform expectations. Lance has the worst possible combination: elite opposing defense, injured offensive line, limited weapons, and zero reps with the starters in 2025.
The ceiling here is maybe 140 yards if things go well. More likely? Something closer to 100-120 yards with a couple turnovers mixed in. This line is projected around 175.5 yards, but could move as news breaks about who’s sitting. Either way, Lance is asking to nearly double his entire season output in a single game.
- Early Bet: Trey Lance under 175.5 passing yards
NFL Player Prop Pick: Dylan Sampson Rushing Yards
Sampson returned from a two-game absence in Week 17 and immediately led Cleveland’s backfield with 14 touches. He carried the ball 11 times for 27 yards and added three catches for zero yards. Not great production, but the rookie was clearly shaking off rust from the hand injury that kept him out.
The matchup is perfect for Week 18. Cincinnati ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 148.9 yards per game on the ground. The Bengals have surrendered 2,382 rushing yards this season, the most in football. They’re 32nd in opponent rushing yards and 26th in red zone defense.
With Quinshon Judkins on IR after dislocating his ankle in Week 16, Sampson is the clear lead back. He out-touched Raheim Sanders and Trayevon Williams combined (14 to 11) despite coming off injury. Cleveland will lean on the run game with their quarterback situation in flux.
Sampson caught 8 of 8 targets for 64 yards when these teams played in Week 1. His receiving floor gives him a safety net even if the rushing yards don’t come easy. But they should. Cincinnati just allowed 180 rushing yards per game over their last three weeks.
The projected line sits around 48.5 yards, though Week 18 lines can shift as injury news breaks. Sampson had 29 rushing yards against Cincinnati in Week 1 when he was playing behind Judkins. Now he’s the clear lead back in a smash-spot matchup against the league’s worst run defense.
- Early Bet: Dylan Sampson over 48.5 rushing yards
NFL Player Prop Pick: Michael Mayer Receiving Yards
Mayer just dominated in Week 17, catching 9 of 10 targets for 89 yards. With Brock Bowers on IR after the Raiders shut him down for tanking purposes, Mayer stepped into the lead tight end role against the Giants. He led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards.
That volume isn’t going anywhere. The Raiders are in full tank mode at 2-14, trying to secure the number one overall pick. They’ve shut down Bowers and Maxx Crosby, but guys like Mayer are still auditioning for their NFL futures. The 2023 second-round pick has been blocked by the best tight end in football, but now he gets one more game to showcase his skill set.
Kenny Pickett will be starting at quarterback. Geno Smith suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 17 and is out for the finale. Pickett went 15 of 25 for 99 yards and an interception in his only start this season. Not great, but Pickett loves targeting tight ends. In his lone start, he leaned heavily on safe, underneath throws.
Kansas City’s defense has been vulnerable to tight ends all season, allowing 762 receiving yards to the position. They rank middle-of-the-pack in tight end yards allowed and have given up consistent production. The Chiefs are also resting starters and playing backups with nothing to play for.
The projected receiving yards prop sits around 43.5 yards, though expect movement as starter/backup news rolls in throughout the week. Mayer hit 89 yards last week on 10 targets. Even with Pickett’s limitations, he should see 7-8 targets as the Raiders’ primary pass-catcher. At that projected number, he needs just five catches at his 8.9 yards per reception average from last week.
- Early Bet: Michael Mayer over 43.5 receiving yards
Brady’s Early NFL Props Record: 22-27
The post Early NFL Props to Target for Week 18 – Trey Lance, Dylan Sampson & More appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
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