- The Heisman Trophy race appears to have been settled Saturday night in the Big Ten Championship
- Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin posted similar stats, but only one delivered in clutch moments
- Check out the updated Heisman odds after conference championship weekend
The Heisman Trophy race appears to be all but over after Saturday night’s Big Ten Championship. Fernando Mendoza’s gutsy performance in Indiana’s 13-10 upset of Ohio State has him positioned as the overwhelming favorite, with his odds shifting dramatically as the game unfolded.
Updated Heisman Odds
Mendoza’s -2000 Heisman odds translate to a 95% implied probability of winning the award. That’s about as close to a lock as you’ll see before the official announcement.
Sayin entered the game at +190 but saw his number balloon to +50000 after struggling when it mattered most.
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How the Odds Shifted During the Game
The live Heisman odds market tracked every drive in Saturday’s defensive battle. Diego Pavia actually became the favorite at certain points, with his number briefly hitting -110 as both Big Ten quarterbacks struggled to move the ball. The defenses dominated early, and bettors began to wonder whether the Vanderbilt star might sneak in and steal the trophy.
Mendoza’s odds started improving after his game-winning 17-yard touchdown pass to Elijah Sarratt in the third quarter. But the real shift happened late in the fourth. Ohio State kicker Jayden Fielding missed a 27-yard field goal wide left with 2:48 remaining, keeping Indiana ahead 13-10.
That’s when Mendoza’s number cratered to -1600. The missed kick essentially ended Sayin’s Heisman hopes and cemented Mendoza as the frontrunner. When Mendoza delivered a clutch 33-yard strike to Charlie Becker on 3rd-and-6 to seal the win, any remaining doubt vanished.
Mendoza’s Heisman Moment
Mendoza’s stat line won’t blow anyone away. He finished 15-of-23 for 222 yards with one touchdown and one interception. But Heisman voters care about narrative, and Mendoza gave them exactly what they wanted.
On the game’s first play, Mendoza took a brutal hit to the head and chest from an Ohio State defender. He left the field for one play before jogging back out to a roar from the Lucas Oil Stadium crowd. That toughness set the tone for Indiana’s historic night.
His 17-yard touchdown pass to Sarratt in the third quarter proved to be the game-winner. His late-game heroics sealed Indiana’s first Big Ten title since 1967.
Emmanuel Acho captured the sentiment on social media: “Naw, go ahead and give Mendoza that Heisman. Borderline knocked out on the 1st play of the game, just to fight back with 220+ passing yards vs. the #1 team in the nation.”
Sayin’s Heisman Hopes Crater
Julian Sayin entered Saturday as a legitimate contender at +190. He left Indianapolis with his campaign in shambles. The Ohio State quarterback went 21-of-29 for 258 yards with one touchdown and one interception, but the numbers don’t show how rough his night was.
Sayin threw a costly interception to Indiana safety Louis Moore and failed to convert a critical fourth-and-1 quarterback sneak. Indiana’s pass rush harassed him all night, and he couldn’t deliver when the Buckeyes needed him.
The “bus driver” narrative that’s followed him all season looks far worse now that he’s faltered on the biggest stage.
Can Pavia Make a Run?
Diego Pavia sits at +1400, which gives him about a 6.7% chance according to the betting markets. That’s significantly down from the +180 he was at before championship weekend.
Saturday’s defensive struggle actually helped Pavia during the game, with his odds briefly hitting -110 as both Big Ten quarterbacks struggled. But Mendoza’s win killed any momentum Pavia had.
Pavia would have had a much better shot if Ohio State had won. Going up against Sayin’s “bus driver” narrative would have been easier than trying to top Mendoza’s Cinderella story.
But Mendoza just led Indiana to 13-0 and their first Big Ten title since 1967 while playing through a borderline concussion. That’s a Heisman-winning story, and it’s hard to see voters looking past it.
Final Heisman Odds Betting Advice
There’s no value left on Mendoza at -2000. You’d need to bet $2,000 just to win $100, and that’s not worth the risk with the official announcement still a week away. If you’re looking for action, Pavia at +1400 is the only remotely interesting play, but even that feels like a longshot.
The smart move is to sit back and wait for the announcement. Mendoza appears to have this thing wrapped up after Saturday night in Indianapolis.
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