- Western Michigan battles Miami (Ohio) for the MAC Championship on December 6th
- Western Michigan is 5-0 SU in their last five games as a favorite
- Check out our MAC Championship preview with my prediction & odds below
Miami (Ohio) (7-5 SU, 6-2 MAC) takes on Western Michigan (8-4 SU, 7-1 MAC) in the Mid-American Conference Championship game on Saturday.
This is Miami’s third straight trip to the MAC Conference Championship game, in which the RedHawks are 1-2. The Broncos make their fourth trip to the championship game, with their only win coming back in 2016.
Catch all of the action on ESPN with kickoff scheduled for noon from Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.
Lock in with my Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan MAC Championship prediction and picks.
Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan Prediction
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- MAC Championship Prediction: Western Michigan wins and the total goes under
With Miami quarterback Dequan Finn sitting this one out to prep for the NFL Draft, the entire complexion of this matchup shifts. The RedHawks are without the engine of their offense.
However, freshman quarterback Tyler Gotowski has stabilized Miami’s attack. Gotowski has four touchdowns and no interceptions so far, including a three-touchdown game last week against Ball State.
Having said that, most of Miami’s passing production came with Finn under center, and he accounted for over 300 total yards and two touchdowns in the RedHawks’ win over the Broncos earlier this season.
Miami’s red-zone efficiency and tempo have dropped, and wins over a Buffalo team that can’t run the football and a Ball State team that ranks among the worst in the nation won’t hide that.
WMU’s defense has been far more disruptive down the stretch, and they’re catching Miami’s offense at a time when their identity is wobbling.
Starting a backup quarterback in the biggest game of the year is rarely a recipe for offensive success, especially against a defense that’s forced a turnover in seven straight games.
On the flip side, Western Michigan have won eight of their last nine games, with their only loss coming away at Miami.
Most importantly, their offense has found a rhythm by running the football, which has opened up room for their play-action attack.
The Broncos are built to win ugly games, control the tempo, and force the RedHawks into mistakes. Don’t expect many points, as both defenses rank in the top 50 in EPA per play allowed.
Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan Expert Picks
- MAC Championship Pick: Western Michigan Moneyline -130
Miami’s defense looks solid on paper, allowing 3.7 yards per rush, but they’ve been gashed in the middle of the field all season.
The RedHawks’ linebackers struggle to cover the RPOs and misdirection looks that WMU thrives in.
Western Michigan has averaged over 187 rushing yards per game this season, and Miami struggles against physical downhill teams. Both Toledo and Ohio ran the football all over Miami, whose front seven had no answer.
Without a physical ground game of their own (116th in EPA per rush) and a freshman quarterback under center, Miami risks falling into predictable down-and-distance situations all afternoon.
That’s where Western Michigan’s value lies, as the Broncos have a well-defined identity. WMU will go as far as their hard-nosed defense takes them.
The Broncos have smothered opposing passers all year, holding them to just 168 passing yards per game and ranking 36th in defensive success rate nationally.
On top of that, Lance Taylor’s defense holds opponents to a touchdown on 78% of red-zone trips, ranking 32nd nationally and holding the 11th-highest sack percentage.
Ultimately, WMU has continuity at quarterback and are playing their best football at the perfect time. Give me Western Michigan, who are 7-0 SU as favorites this season.
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Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan MAC Championship Odds
Western Michigan are 2.5-point favorites in the MAC Championship college football odds.
The Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan total sits at 43.5 with the under favored at -115 and the over listed at -105.
Odds as of December 5th at FanDuel. Look for the best college football betting apps for Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan and check out the best online sportsbook for your MAC Championship wagers.
The post MAC Championship Preview: Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan Prediction & Odds (Dec. 6) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
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