- Anytime touchdown props have been posted for every NFL Week 14 game
- The Titans have allowed 17 TD to opposing rushers this season
- See my expert NFL touchdown bets for Week 14
The Week 14 NFL slate continues Sunday, and unlike last week, the menu is loaded with marquee games. Division leads and playoff lives will be at stake, but I’m choosing to stray about as far away as possible from a relevant matchup for my first NFL anytime touchdown bet.
Below, you’ll find my six favorite expert picks for TD props headlined by the Browns’ Quinshon Judkins, and the analysis for why each selection stands out.
Best NFL TD Scorer Picks (Week 14)
The “best odds” in the table are as of 9:00 pm ET, on December 5. Readers can bookmark SBD’s NFL player props page to see up-to-the-minute props for every Week 14 game.
SPORTSBOOK
Quinshon Judkins Anytime TD (-110)
The Titans-Browns contest is by far the lowest totalled game on the slate, but it’s impossible to ignore Judkins in the anytime TD market. The rookie RB is fresh off a 26-touch performance versus the 49ers, and Cleveland wants to do everything it can to keep the ball out of Shedeur Sanders’ hands. That signals a big game for Judkins is coming, especially given the matchup.
The Browns are 4.5-point home favorites over a Tennessee squad that’s surrendered 17 rushing touchdowns this season, the second most in the league.
Judkins has excelled in Cleveland’s three wins this year, scoring six times. Compare that with the Browns’ seven losses he’s been part of, in which he’s only produced 1 TD.
Puka Nacua Anytime TD (-105)
We struck out with Puca Nacua in this market last week, but I’m going right back to the well. Nacua saw a team-high nine targets versus Carolina, and is line for another heavy workload with LA projected for 28.5 points.
The Super Bowl 60 odds top-3 contender has owned Arizona during the Sean McVay era, and should have their way with a Cardinals defense that ranks bottom-five in success rate.
Nacua is due for some major positive touchdown regression, after seeing the NFL’s highest percentage of targets per routes run, but producing only 4 receiving TD.
Kyren Williams Anytime TD (+115)
With LA projected for 4+ touchdowns versus Arizona, there’s a good chance their running game finds the paint as well. Kyren Williams still commands the backfield and has 5 TD in his last five outings.
For all the talk about Blake Corum stealing carries, it’s important to note that Williams has earned twice as many rushing attempts as his teammate. He also has a commanding share of the red zone work, outcarrying him 36-17 inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, and 20-10 in goal-to-go situations.
Aaron Jones Anytime TD (+140)
No one wants to touch the Vikings offense right now, and I don’t blame them. Minnesota hasn’t scored a touchdown in back-to-back games, but the Washington defense can help cover up some of those warts in a hurry on Sunday.
Given J.J. McCarthy’s struggles, it doesn’t make sense to target a Vikings pass catcher, as Minnesota is going to want to keep the ball out of its rookie QB’s hands. Enter Aaron Jones, who operates as the lead back and has been a prolific touchdown scorer his entire career.
Washington Commanders Rush Defense Stats
Washington’s defense begins the week ranked bottom-10 in EPA/rush, rushing yards allowed, and rushing TD. That’s more than enough ammo for me to target Jones against given his favorable +140 price.
Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD (+225)
I really wanted to target James Cook or Josh Allen to score against the Bengals, but online sportsbooks have juiced their odds to a point where I can’t bet them. Good thing for me, Cincinnati is also the worst team at defending tight ends.
The Bengals have allowed 13 TD to enemy tight ends, five more than anyone else. They’ve also allowed a league-worst 86 receptions, pointing to a potential ceiling game for Dalton Kincaid.
Despite missing four games, Kincaid is still tied for the Buffalo lead in receiving touchdowns. He’s one of Josh Allen’s favorite red zone targets, and should be running wide open against a collection of poor coverage linebackers and safeties.
Brenton Strange Anytime TD (+340)
I’m sticking with tight ends for my final anytime TD pick, targeting another longshot in Jacksonville’s Brenton Strange. He’s been one of Trevor Lawrence’s favorite targets all season, and the matchup is excellent versus a Colts team that’s allowed the second-most receiving yards to enemy tight ends.
Strange has at least five catches in three of the last four games he’s started and finished, and finally got into the end zone last week versus the Titans. I’m betting he makes it two weeks in a row based on the matchup, his volume, and the fact that the Jags may be missing two starting receivers.
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