- Our analysis reveals how and why St. John’s will cover the consensus -9.5 spread on the road
- Dynamic offenses should eclipse the consensus 155.5-point total
- The betting public is overwhelmingly backing St. John’s to win but taking Georgetown to cover
A classic Big East showdown unfolds on New Year’s Eve as the St. John’s Red Storm travel to face the Georgetown Hoyas. Tip-off is at 8 pm, ET, (FS1).
The Red Storm (8-4, 1-0 in Big East) are a heavy favorite, in large part due to their superior RPI ranking of No. 33. Georgetown (9-4, 1-1 Big East) hasn’t pushed itself as much. The Hoyas lost their only game against a ranked team (UNC), which partly explains why their RPI is No. 112.
St. John’s boasts a formidable frontcourt duo in Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins, while the Hoyas counter with a dynamic backcourt featuring Malik Mack and KJ Lewis.
Let’s break it down and provide our best bets.
Expert Picks & Predictions for St. John’s vs Georgetown
This Big East rivalry matchup presents clear betting angles driven by distinct positional advantages. While St. John’s rightfully commands respect as the road favorite, the path to victory and profit lies in exploiting specific matchups that should manifest over 40 minutes of conference basketball.
Best Bet: St. John’s -9.0 (-107) at Bet365
The consensus line is St. John’s -9.5, but Bet365 has it down to 9.0. Taking a road favorite laying nearly double digits in conference play requires conviction, but the Red Storm possess a decisive frontcourt advantage that should translate to a comfortable victory. Ejiofor dominates on both ends with 13.8 points, 7.17 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game. Georgetown won’t be able to handle him.
Ejiofor ranks fourth in the Big East with 3.08 offensive rebounds per game, giving the Red Storm extra opportunities. Bryce Hopkins adds another dimension with 13.9 points and 4.25 rebounds, creating a dual threat that Georgetown simply cannot match physically. This size and athleticism advantage should compound throughout the game, allowing St. John’s to pull away in the final 10 minutes and cover the substantial spread.
SPORTSBOOK
Over/Under Pick: Over 152.5 (-115) at DraftKings
The consensus over is 155.5, but DraftKings has it at 152.5. Both offenses bring enough firepower to push this total comfortably over the posted number. Georgetown features one of the Big East’s most dynamic backcourts with Malik Mack (14.5 PPG, 4.5 APG) and KJ Lewis (14.3 PPG, 3.2 APG), both ranking among the conference’s top-10 scorers. Their ability to create shots and find open teammates will test St. John’s perimeter defense consistently.
The Red Storm counter with balanced scoring depth, featuring four players in double figures: Hopkins (13.9), Ejiofor (13.8), Ian Jackson (11.6), and Oziyah Sellers (10.6). This offensive balance creates multiple threats Georgetown must account for defensively.
The pace factor strongly favors the over, as Georgetown’s KJ Lewis leads the Big East with 2.15 steals per game. While these turnovers create defensive stops, they also generate fast-break opportunities for both teams, increasing possessions and scoring chances. Combined with St. John’s own disruptive defense averaging 8.67 steals per game, expect an up-tempo affair with numerous transition baskets that easily surpasses 152.5 points.
SPORTSBOOK
Public Betting Trends Create Contrarian Opportunity
The college basketball betting public‘s approach to this Big East clash reveals a fascinating split between confidence and caution, creating potential value for sharp bettors who understand the underlying dynamics.
Moneyline vs Spread: A Study in Contradictions
Public bettors have overwhelming faith in St. John’s ability to win straight up, with an impressive 96.72% of moneyline bets and 94.82% of the money backing the Red Storm. This near-unanimous support indicates very little belief in Georgetown’s upset potential.
However, the spread action tells a completely different story. Despite the lopsided moneyline support, 70.29% of spread bets favor Georgetown +9.5, accounting for 68.67% of the handle. This creates a clear contrarian opportunity, as the public expects a competitive game while our analysis points to St. John’s frontcourt dominance creating a more decisive victory margin.
Total Action Aligns with Our Analysis
The betting public shows strong agreement on the game’s scoring potential, with 63.12% of bets taking the over 155.5. More significantly, 64.4% of the total money wagered supports the over, suggesting larger bettors expect a high-scoring affair. This alignment between bet volume and money percentage reinforces our prediction for an offensive showcase featuring both teams’ dynamic scorers.
Statistical Breakdown: St. John’s vs Georgetown
Who has the edge?
Key Mismatches Drive Our Predictions
The Strength of Schedule disparity (0.6286 vs 0.4932) provides crucial context for evaluating these teams’ similar records. St. John’s has faced significantly tougher competition while maintaining a superior point differential (+14.2 vs +5.9), validating their higher RPI ranking and road favorite status.
St. John’s vs Georgetown Odds
Here are the current betting lines for this Big East showdown:
- Moneyline: St. John’s (-455) | Georgetown (+344)
- Spread: St. John’s -9.5 (-107) | Georgetown +9.5 (-114)
- Total: Over 155.5 (-108) | Under 155.5 (-112)
Odds as of Dec. 31, 2025 from consensus sportsbooks.
The betting market clearly favors St. John’s as the dominant force in this matchup. The heavy -455 moneyline odds translate to strong confidence in a road victory, while the 9.5-point spread reflects expectations for a decisive margin despite the conference setting. While St. John’s has slightly more favorable odds to cover (-107 vs -114), betting splits indicate the market expects Georgetown to cover the spread, suggesting a less decisive victory for St. John’s.
Based on the moneyline odds, the implied probabilities show St. John’s with an 81.98% chance of victory while Georgetown sits at 22.52%. After removing the bookmaker’s vig, the true normalized probabilities are:
- St. John’s Red Storm: 78.45%
- Georgetown Hoyas: 21.55%
From a wagering perspective, a $10 bet on St. John’s moneyline would profit $2.20, while the same $10 wager on a Georgetown upset would return $34.40 in profit. The game total of 155.5 points, while aligning with our over prediction, is actually lower than the teams’ combined average points per game of 165.3.
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