- Defending champion Ohio State is a +240 favorite to win the National Title
- The Buckeyes lost to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship, but didn’t allow more than 16 points in any game all season
- Keep reading to see the complete updated National Title odds for all 12 teams in the Final CFP Bracket, plus my favorite value bet
The College Football Playoff field is set, with the Final 12 teams set to start their journey towards a National Title on Dec.19.
Selection Sunday provided more than a few surprises, but none bigger than the snub of Notre Dame in favor of Alabama and Miami, and the absence of a Power 4 conference champion for the first time.
Updated National Title Odds for CFP Teams
After the dust settled, Ohio State held firm at the top of the National Championship odds, despite the Buckeyes losing to Indiana on Saturday. Ryan Day’s squad is now priced at +240, slightly longer than their odds before the weekend.
The Hoosiers and Georgia also stood pat as the second and third choice to win it all, with Indiana’s odds shortening from +443 to +250 following their Big Ten Title Game triumph.
Of the top three, I prefer Ohio State at their current price, as Saturday’s result is arguably the best thing that could have happened to them.
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Best Bet at the Top of the Board
- Ohio State +240
The 13-10 defeat is not only humbling, but it will ensure the Buckeyes don’t get complacent and stay hungry heading into the playoff.
Ironically, this is the exact same situation they found themselves in last year. They started the season 11-0, only to fall 13-10 to Michigan in “The Game”. That kept them out of the Big Ten Title Game and lit a fire under them.
The Buckeyes entered the playoff as the eighth seed and steamrolled the competition, winning all four games by double-figures en route to the National Title.
This year, they’ll have the luxury of a First Round bye, but they’ll still face a tougher road than Indiana.
Ohio State was far and away the best team in College Football this season, and I’m not going to let the Indiana loss cloud my vision. With all due respect to the Hoosiers, they mustered only 13 points versus the historically good Buckeyes’ defense. Ohio State was the more efficient team on offense, but ultimately failed due to poor special teams, uncharacteristic turnovers and uninspiring offensive line play.
Those issues can be corrected in time for a likely rematch with Indiana. I don’t have the same confidence in the Hoosiers’ offense against Ohio State. The Buckeyes didn’t allow any team to exceed 16 points all season. Illinois was the only opponent to eclipse 14, and they only did so in garbage time.
The Buckeyes are far and away the best defense in college football, ranking number one in points per game, yards per game, yards per play and red zone touchdown rate. They yield just 2.8 yards per rush and 5.5 yards per throw.
Offensively, they underwhelmed against the Hoosiers, but this is still a team that averaged 32 points per game, and features Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith, who will both be top-5 NFL picks when they come out.
+240 for them to repeat is a generous price and one that I would gravitate to if betting the top of the board.
Favorite Value Picks in the Final CFP Bracket
- Texas Tech +800
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As for my favorite value picks, I’m locked in on Texas Tech at +800 in the CFP Bracket. I admit, I was hesitant to come around on the Red Raiders, but their performance in the Big 12 Title Game finally won me over.
The Red Raiders destroyed a very good BYU program for the second time in less than a month. They yielded only 7 points and 200 yards of offense, outgaining the Cougars by 174 yards and outscoring them by 27 points.
Big margins of victory are nothing new to this team. They are number two in the country in average point differential per game, and number three in total efficiency.
Texas Tech lost one game all season, and that was a contest they had to play without starting QB Behren Morton due to injury.
In the 11 games Morton started this season, the Red Raiders were flawless, winning each time by at least 22 points.
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