- Week 15 features explosive matchups with elite offenses facing vulnerable defenses
- Matthew Stafford, James Cook, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba headline my top NFL player props for Week 15
- Check out my early Week 15 NFL player prop breakdowns with advanced matchup data
We’re coming off a split week where Kyren Williams absolutely smashed his prop, but Jahmyr Gibbs fell short despite finding the end zone three times. That’s the way it goes sometimes. Process over results. Now we turn our attention to Week 15, where the data is pointing us toward some serious value in the NFL player props market.
I’ve dug deep into the matchups to find three players in prime spots this Sunday. These props target defenses that have been getting torched all season by specific positions, combined with players who are seeing massive workloads and producing at elite levels.
NFL Week 15 Player Props to Target
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NFL Player Prop Pick: Matthew Stafford Passing Yards
Stafford gets the ultimate revenge game against his former team, and the matchup couldn’t be better. Through 13 games, he’s thrown for 3,354 yards and 35 touchdowns with only four interceptions. That TD total leads the entire NFL, and he’s been on an absolute heater lately.
The Lions are allowing 238.2 passing yards per game (21st in the NFL) and just got torched by Dak Prescott for 326 yards last week. Detroit’s secondary has surrendered 25 passing touchdowns this season, and they’ve been particularly vulnerable when opposing quarterbacks have elite weapons to work with.
Check out Stafford’s recent passing production:
He’s topped 272.5 yards in four of his last eight games, and he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in seven straight contests. That TD streak shows the Rams are letting him attack downfield, not just dinking and dunking.
This game has the highest total on the slate at 54.5 points, indicating massive shootout potential. With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy, Stafford has two elite weapons who can beat Detroit’s secondary. Playing against the team that drafted him first overall in 2009 adds extra motivation in what’s essentially a playoff game for the Rams’ postseason hopes.
At 37 years old, Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career. His 258.0 yards per game average sits just below this line, but his recent hot streak (264.0 yards over his last five) and the massive game environment point to the over. I love the value on Stafford’s passing yards prop offers given the matchup and how well he’s been playing lately.
- Early Bet: Matthew Stafford over 272.5 passing yards
NFL Player Prop Pick: James Cook Rushing Yards
Cook has been an absolute monster since Buffalo’s Week 7 bye. Through 13 games, he’s racked up 1,308 rushing yards on 249 carries with eight touchdowns. That’s 100.6 yards per game, yet his rushing yards prop is just 81.5 yards. The value is glaring.
The Patriots rank second in the NFL in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs (11.9 per game), but that’s a misleading stat. They’re allowing 3.68 yards per carry and have been on the field constantly due to their offense struggling. Buffalo is a heavy favorite in this game, which sets up perfectly for Cook to pound the rock.
Look at Cook’s recent rushing performance:
Over his last seven games, Cook has rushed for 771 yards. That’s 110.1 yards per game, crushing both his prop and his season average. He’s hit or exceeded 81.5 yards in four of those seven games, including three absolutely massive performances.
Buffalo has fully committed to the ground game under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Cook is averaging 19.2 carries per game this season and seeing 21.4 touches overall. His 5.3 yards per carry is elite efficiency, and his 88.0% positive run rate shows he’s consistently gaining positive yardage.
The Bills are playing in New England in December, which typically means running the football. As road favorites, they’ll want to control the clock and lean on their bell-cow back. Cook already has four 100-yard games this season, and this Week 15 matchup should produce another one.
- Early Bet: James Cook over 81.5 rushing yards
NFL Player Prop Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards
Smith-Njigba is having a breakout season that’s flying under the radar. Through 13 games, he leads the entire NFL with 1,428 receiving yards. He’s caught 89 passes on 120 targets for nine touchdowns, and he’s been the clear alpha in Seattle’s offense. The NFL odds have adjusted to his dominance with this elevated line.
The Colts rank 30th in the league against wide receivers, allowing 23.1 fantasy points per game to the position. They’ve surrendered 2,174 receiving yards to wideouts this season, and their 7.79 yards per target shows they’re getting beaten consistently through the air.
JSN just torched Atlanta for 92 yards and two touchdowns last week. Here’s a look at his recent receiving production:
Excluding Week 13’s blowout win over Minnesota (where Seattle ran the ball constantly), JSN has exceeded 98.5 receiving yards in eight of 12 games this season. That’s a 67% hit rate, and his 109.8 yards per game average is well above this line.
The volume is elite. Smith-Njigba commands a 35.6% target share in Seattle’s offense and averages 9.2 targets per game. He has zero drops on the season, which shows his reliability. Sam Darnold trusts him completely, especially on third downs and in the red zone.
Indianapolis plays a heavy zone scheme that JSN destroys from the slot. He’s averaging 110.7 air yards per game, which leads the Seahawks. Against a Colts secondary that ranks 30th against receivers and just allowed big games to multiple opponents, this receiving yards prop is a smash spot for the NFL’s leading receiver.
- Early Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 98.5 receiving yards
Brady’s Early NFL Props Record: 18-23
The post Week 15 NFL Player Props To Target for Sunday – Stafford, Cook & More appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
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