- No. 2 Montana State (13-2) takes on unseeded Illinois State (12-4) for the FCS National Championship tonight in Nashville.
- The Bobcats, winners of the 1-AA national title in 1984, are 10.5-point favorites.
- I’ve been on the FCS beat all season long and I have the perfect same-game parlay picked out for Monday’s FCS Championship game.
Illinois State (12-4; 8-2 last 10 ATS) is the best sports story no one is talking about and they get a chance to earn their first national title tonight in Nashville when they face Montana State (13-2; 7-3) at FirstBank Stadium.
Technically an unseeded team in the FCS bracket, Illinois State is the first FCS team to win four straight playoff road games and reach the final. They will be significant underdogs.
Let’s do some same game parlay magic on Black Monday in the NFL with the FCS National Championship tonight in Nashville.
Here’s a breakdown of my same-game parlay picks:
Odds as of Monday morning from college football betting apps. Check out the best sportsbook promos for College Football Playoffs.
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Illinois State +10.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
The Redbirds have won four of their last five games against the spread, Montana State has won five of the last seven.
I think Montana State is still a good moneyline bet, but I think 10.5 points is a lot to lay. Illinois State had three losses in the Missouri Valley Conference, they got spanked by Southern Illinois in their regular season finale and were honestly a team on the bubble for the bracket. But since the FCS playoffs have started they’ve been on fire. They beat Southeastern Louisiana in the out-bracket game (SLU was the 16 seed, so technically Illinois State is the 17) and then shocked the FCS world with a 1-point win over top seed North Dakota State.
QB Tommy Rittenhouse has thrown for 3,257 yards and is a gun slinger. He has one of the best wide receivers in FCS, Daniel Sobkowicz, and running back Victor Dawson has run for over 1,200 yards.
Is that enough to win? I don’t think so. But Montana State has been here before and lost both in 2021 and 2024. I see Illinois State scoring some points tonight and this being close.
Sobkowicz Over 80.5 yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Sobkowicz is a 6-foot-3, 205-pound wide receiver for Illinois State who reminds me of Adam Thielen for the Steelers. He has 78 catches for 1089 yards and 18 scores this season.
In his last two playoff games, he went for 97 yards on seven grabs against Villanova and 150 on six grabs against UC Davis. He’s just too big of a match-up problem for FCS defenses.
The other thing to keep in mind is Montana State star DB Caden Dowler got hurt in their semifinal win over Montana. Dowler was the Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year, a real ball hawk. No one is giving any clear information on whether Dowler will play tonight. That’s not a good sign.
Without Dowler, that’s a hole in the Bobcats secondary that I think Sobkowicz can take advantage of.
Over 57.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
This game is being played in Nashville while the usual home stadium in Frisco is being renovated. They got perfect weather for this one, no rain in forecast.
Montana State QB Justin Lamson has thrown for 24 scores and has a completion percentage of 72 percent, which is amazing. The Bobcats run for 234.5 yards a game. They’ve won 13 in a row, scoring 48 and 44 points in their last two playoff games.
57 points is a lot. Four of the last FCS championship games have been under 57, but I see this as a back and forth offensive game, maybe 38-31 for Montana State, so I am comfortable with the over.
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