Chargers vs Patriots Early Predictions & Picks for AFC Wild Card Game

• Drake Maye makes his playoff debut for the Patriots
• The Patriots are 3.5-point home favorites
• Wintry weather could be a factor Sunday night

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Fun fact: The New England Patriots haven’t won a Playoff game since winning the Super Bowl in 2018.

They lost Wild Card games in 2019 (Tom Brady’s final game as a Patriot) and 2021.

After three long years, the Patriots are back in the playoffs. New England will host the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC Wild Card Game at 8 pm, ET, Sunday, Jan. 11 (NBC).

NFL MVP candidate Drake Maye led the Patriots to the AFC East title and will make his playoff debut. Hold off on the Brady comparisons for now, but Brady did win his first Super Bowl in Year 2. No pressure, Maye.

Out detailed analysis breaks down the matchup and offers our best bet.

Chargers vs Patriots Picks and Predictions

The Patriots sit as short 3.5-point home favorites, a line that respects their home-field advantage while acknowledging the competitive nature of this matchup. Without recent head-to-head trends to dissect, we must focus on personnel matchups and market movements to identify the sharpest angles.

The game script pivots on the quarterback battle: Justin Herbert vs. the ascending Maye. While New England carries the 63.8% implied win probability, the narrow spread suggests a contest that could swing on a single possession.

Primary Pick: Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 (-110)

Bet365 Sportsbook lists these odds on Tuesday morning, January 6. Laying more than a field goal with a second-year quarterback, even one as talented as Maye, presents inherent risk against a veteran signal-caller of Herbert’s caliber. The Chargers quarterback has consistently delivered in hostile environments throughout his career, and his passing yardage prop of 226.5 yards reflects market respect for his ability to move the ball effectively.

Another issue is the Patriots’ schedule, which calls into question whether they’re elite or merely better than the group of sub-.500 teams they beat this season. Some metrics ranked the Patriots schedule as the easiest in the NFL.

Ultimately, the crucial factor is that 3.5-point hook. This cushion allows the Chargers to lose by a field goal while still covering the spread. Given the Chargers’ defensive prowess under Jim Harbaugh’s system, we’re backing Herbert’s experience and pocket presence to keep this contest within the number.

Supporting Analysis:

• Herbert’s career passer rating on the road exceeds 95.0, demonstrating his ability to perform in adverse conditions
• The Chargers defense allowed just 18.2 points per game in 2025, ranking third in the league
• Mike Vrabel’s Patriots are 4-8 ATS as home favorites of 3+ points since 2025

Assessing the Over/Under (46.5)

Our AI tools are suggesting taking the Over. The betting market has pushed this total up from its opening number of 45.5, indicating sharp money flowing toward a higher-scoring affair. This movement aligns with the offensive talent on both sidelines and the potential for an up-tempo contest. I’m staying away from that bet for a couple of reasons. Notably, the Chargers don’t play many games in the wintry conditions they’ll face at New England. The forecast calls for precipitation earlier in the day, with temperatures dipping into the 30s near kickoff. Those aren’t quarterback-friendly conditions.

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Public Betting Trends: Chargers vs Patriots

The NFL betting public has shown clear preferences, with significant money flowing toward the home team and a high-scoring contest. Here’s where the handle is concentrated:

• Moneyline: An overwhelming 74.61% of the money backs the Patriots to win outright
• Point Spread: Public confidence extends to the spread, with 60.96% of the handle supporting New England -3.5
• Game Total: Strong consensus on scoring, as 63.37% of the money has landed on Over 46.5

This public sentiment creates an interesting dynamic compared to our analysis. We dispute the majority on the Over 46.5, as both market movement and offensive personnel support higher scoring. However, our primary pick of Chargers +3.5 represents a direct contrarian play, fading heavy public investment in the Patriots. Such strong public leans often create value opportunities, particularly when backing an elite veteran quarterback against a less experienced starter.

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Odds

Bet Type	Los Angeles	New England
Spread	+3.5 (-109)	-3.5 (-111)
Moneyline	+165	-199
Total Points	Over 46.5 (-106)	Under 46.5 (-115)

Odds as of January 6, 2026 from consensus sportsbooks.

The betting market has established New England as 3.5-point home favorites. The moneyline reflects this narrow margin, with the Patriots priced at -199 to win outright while the visiting Chargers sit at +165. The total of 46.5 points suggests moderate scoring expectations between two well-coached teams.

Based on the moneyline odds, the Patriots hold an implied win probability of 66.6%, while the Chargers carry a 37.7% chance. After removing the sportsbook’s vig, the normalized probabilities give New England a 63.8% chance of victory and Los Angeles a 36.2% chance of securing the upset.

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