- Ben Shelton is a -175 favorite vs Casper Ruud in fourth-round action at the Australian Open
- Ruud has won two of three head-to-head matches, but they each have a win on hard courts
- See my Shelton vs Ruud predictions, odds and props to bet below
A trip to the quarterfinals is on the line at the Australian Open, as 8th-ranked American Ben Shelton will battle 12th-ranked Norwegian Casper Ruud in the wee hours of Monday morning (Eastern Time) in Melbourne.
Ruud has won two of three head-to-head matches, but each has a win on the hard courts, part of the reason Shelton enters as a -175 moneyline favorite to advance in the Australian Open odds.
Shelton vs Ruud is for the early risers stateside, with a 4:30am ET start time from Rod Laver Arena, with ESPN2 and ESPN Unlimited providing the broadcast coverage.
Shelton vs Ruud Picks & Prediction
- Over 40.5 Games (-120 at bet365)
Both men have been consistently good in Australia, with Ruud dropping a set to Marin Cilic in Round 3 as the only one between them in six matches.
With both playing so well, I expect there to be plenty of back-and-forth, which is why my Shelton vs Ruud pick will target the Over 40.5 games line.
While Shelton has not dropped a set, that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been challenged. He needed two tiebreak sets wins to oust Ugo Humbert in the opening round, and needed a 3rd-set tiebreaker win to top 30th-ranked Valentin Vacherot.
Ruud made quick work of Mattia Bellucci and Jaume Munar, surrendering more than four games in a set just once, before losing a set to Cilic in Round 3.
These two most-recently met at the Mexico Open in 2024, and the close matchplay is what I expect Monday.
After dropping an opening set tiebreaker, Ruud won the match 6-7 (7), 6-4, 6-4. This will be their first five-set match all-time, and if it’s as closely played as it was in Acapulco, this should get to a fourth set and cruise past that total.
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Shelton vs Ruud Odds
A Ruud upset pays out at +137 odds, and it’s not a bad play: Ruud won in Acapulco and also won on Clay in Barcelona in 2023, with Shelton winning their first meeting in Cincinnati in 2023.
Shelton is a slight 2.5-game favorite on the spread, while the game-total line is at 40.5 for this best-of-five match.
SPORTSBOOK
Shelton proved last year that he’s built for the Aussie Open stage, getting to the quarterfinals before bowing out to eventual winner Jannik Sinner.
The American brings a heavy serve and power ground strokes to the fast surface in Melbourne, and that’s been his formula in overwhelming opponents.
Big shotmaking also comes with big risk, though, and Shelton has averaged more than three double faults in his last 10 matches. His second serve against Ruud will need to have some zip on it to keep his opponent in defensive mode, but those unnecessary errors could catch him at the wrong time.
Ruud’s game will be more about craft and guile, and picking up Shelton’s style of play to find advantages. The Norwegian eats up break point chances, converting nearly 40% of those game-changing points.
The longer the rallies, the more it plays into Ruud’s favor, as his shot making can keep move Shelton from aggressive to defensive deeper into points, with more opportunities to force Shelton into unforced errors.
Shelton vs Ruud H2H Results
But this is usually the end of the road for Ruud, who has yet to advance past the Fourth Round at the Australian Open.
The only other time he advanced to Round 4 was in 2021, and he returned down two sets to Russian Andrey Rublev. He was bounced in Round 2 in 2025 and Round 3 in 2024.
Shelton vs Ruud Props to Bet
- Prop Pick #1: Shelton Under 19.5 aces (-110 at bet365)
Shelton has finished Under this total in all three matches thus far in Melbourne, hitting a high of 19 in his second round, straight sets win over Australian Dane Sweeney.
In three career matches with Ruud, he’s only hit the double-digit ace mark once, with 10 in their last meeting. Ruud’s adaptability to his opponents’ style serves the bettor well for this wager.
- Prop Pick #2: Ruud Under 2.5 double faults (+100 at bet365)
Ruud hasn’t double-faulted three times in each match with Shelton in their head-to-head history, but with a high of two in their three-set matches, the books are anticipating that the longer the match goes, the more opportunity there is for the Norwegian to alter at the service line.
That’s sort of what’s played out in Melbourne, with Ruud hitting at least three double faults in two of his matches, missing the Over by one double fault in the other. Still, it’s worth the value here to take a flier.
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