- Jose Mourinho returns to face his old team in a glamour Champions League fixture with Real Madrid in a state of flux
- The sides meet at 3:00 pm ET in Lisbon on Tuesday, before the return leg next Wednesday in Madrid
- Check out all the odds and my picks for this Champions League playoff tie
It is not hyperbole to say that it was one of the craziest Champions League moments of all time when these two sides met a few weeks ago. Leading 3-2 to nine-man Real Madrid needing a fourth goal to make the playoffs, it was goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin who scored in the 98th minute.
And for their just rewards, they get to do it all over again against the fifteen-time champions in the playoff round. Real Madrid have been poor since the departure of Carlo Ancelotti and parted ways with Xabi Alonso after a dismal start to the season.
Club legend Alvaro Arbeloa has failed to steady the ship while Benfica have suddenly found themselves in a title race. Below, I have a look at the To Advance market and my pick for the tie.
Benfica v Real Madrid Odds to Advance (UCL Playoffs)
Real Madrid are big favorites across the board but their odds to advance exhibit a pretty broad range across sportsbooks. They are as short as -600 at BetMGM and as long as -450 at Caesars. Benfica’s best price to advance is +360 at DraftKings, while the shortest odds are +300 at Caesars.
Odds as of Feb. 16. Download the top sports betting apps for the Champions League.
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Benfica v Real Madrid Pick to Advance: Real Madrid (-450 at Caesars)
There isn’t much value in the -450 price tag. If you are looking for a bigger payout, consider pairing Madrid with PSG to advance against Monaco (-1000), Newcastle to advance against Qarabag (-2500), and Inter Milan to advance against Bodo/Glimt (-500). That four-leg parlay generates a -150 odds at Caesars today.
This is also a great example of the importance of line shopping parlays: the exact same four-leg parlay pays out at just -185 at DraftKings and -217 at BetMGM.
Kylian Mbappe
Despite the very real possibility that Real Madrid could end the season trophyless, Kylian Mbappe is playing possibly the finest football of his career. He has 13 goals in the Champions League this season, five more than second-best Harry Kane and nearly double that of Erling Haaland. Averaging over a goal a game in the league and in a procession for the Golden Boot in both competitions, not even a Jose Mourinho defensive masterclass can contain the Frenchman.
Differences in Resources
Even without Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo, and Raul Ascensio, Real Madrid just has star power all over the field. Even if they didn’t have Kylian Mbappe to rely on, Vinicius is a world-class forward in his own right. The midfield of Tchouameni, Valverde and Camavinga should outrun Benfica, and even if the defence isn’t quite the force it once was, there’s the matter of getting past the best goalkeeper of this generation.
Benfica Built on Shaky Foundations
Although there has been a recent uptick in league form, a closer inspection is needed. Benfica scraped past 10-man Santa Clara on Friday. For context, Santa Clara were knocked out by Irish Champions Shamrock Rovers in the qualification stages.
Since that remarkable win over Real Madrid, they have won twice and drawn once, but none of which were inspired performances.
European Pride
The Champions League is where Real Madrid’s bread is buttered. Even without their best squads and when in transition, they constantly find their way to the latter stages of the competition. They are still one of the outright favourites for the competition despite their poor season to date and will not want an unwelcome record of getting dumped out at this stage of the competition.
One-sided Goalscoring Power
Real Madrid scored 21 goals in their eight group stage games and showed off their firepower, while Benfica were able to score just 10 times in the group stage. All things considered, it is unreasonable to expect Benfica to create enough chances and score enough goals over two legs to give themselves a chance in this tie.
Backing Real Madrid to advance is not the most exciting bet in the world, but it is hard to argue against the competition’s most successful team, even if this season has not gone as expected. Yes, Benfica will bring some allure with Jose Mourinho and the Portuguese manager will be desperate for one more big European moment, but Benfica will be simply outmatched by Real Madrid over 180 minutes.
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