- UFC Mexico City takes place Saturday, February 28th from Mexico City, Mexico
- Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno headlines against short-notice replacement Lone’er Kavanagh
- Check out the early UFC Mexico City odds, predictions and best value below
The UFC heads south of the border for its annual Mexico City card this Saturday. Brandon Moreno was supposed to face Asu Almabayev, but a hand injury scrapped that fight. Lone’er Kavanagh steps in on short notice for a five-round main event he probably wasn’t expecting.
The card is loaded with heavy favorites and altitude is going to play a factor in almost every fight. Prelims kick off at 2:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with the main card starting at 5:15 pm ET. Here are the early UFC Mexico City odds and my predictions for the card.
Early UFC Mexico City Odds
This might be the most lopsided card in recent memory. Almost every fight features a heavy favorite, and the closest line on the board is Ailin Perez at -180 over Macy Chiasson. Moreno is a -205 favorite in the main event with the over 4.5 rounds slightly favored at -140.
The co-main between David Martinez and Marlon Vera has Martinez as a -290 favorite. Vera is a +235 underdog for the third straight fight.
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Early Moreno vs Kavanagh Prediction
Moreno is a former champion, and I expect him to handle business here. He’s fought in Mexico City three times before, including two five-rounders. Kavanagh has never gone five rounds in his career and is stepping in on short notice from across the globe.
The altitude in Mexico City is brutal. If you don’t adjust to the altitude, you’ll run out of gas after two rounds. Kavanagh’s lone UFC loss came because he slowed down against Charles Johnson after a fast start. That’s a bad sign heading into a 25-minute fight at elevation.
Tale of the Tape
Don’t get me wrong, Kavanagh is fast and accurate on the feet. I expect him to win exchanges early. But Moreno has been in wars with Alexandre Pantoja, Brandon Royval, and Deiveson Figueiredo. He’s fought at this level for years. Kavanagh’s best wins are unanimous decisions over Felipe dos Santos and Jose Ochoa, guys who are barely on the roster.
I think Moreno eats some shots in the first two rounds and then takes over once Kavanagh’s gas tank empties out. Good luck going 25 minutes at this altitude without proper camp time.
If you like Moreno, the moneyline at -205 isn’t terrible, but I’d rather target a late finish. Kavanagh faded against Charles Johnson, and that was at sea level in a three-rounder. Five rounds at altitude is a nightmare for him.
- Moreno vs Kavanagh Early Pick: Brandon Moreno by KO/TKO/DQ (DraftKings)
Early Martinez vs Vera Prediction
Chito Vera keeps getting underdog prices that look tempting, and he keeps finding ways to disappoint. He’s lost three straight, including a decision to Aiemann Zahabi that left him fuming at the judges.
The problem isn’t the judging. He’s a notoriously slow starter who can’t afford to give away the first round in a three-round fight.
Martinez, 27, fights out of Mexico City and looked impressive in his decision victory over Rob Font. He moves like Dominick Cruz with constant angles and footwork. He lands 4.85 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.95. Vera takes too much damage on his feet to keep up with that.
Vera hasn’t landed a takedown since June 2021. That’s probably his best path to winning, and he just won’t commit to it. Martinez should be able to pick him apart on the feet, and at -290 on the moneyline, you’re better off targeting Martinez by decision.
- Martinez vs Vera Early Pick: David Martinez by Decision (DraftKings)
Other UFC Mexico City Predictions
Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green:
Zellhuber lost to 39-year-old Michael Johnson as a massive favorite in his last fight. Now he’s a 5-to-1 favorite again against another veteran striker. The talent is there at 6’1″ with a huge reach advantage, but his effort level has been a problem.
Fighting in Mexico City should help his motivation, and the judges aren’t going to do King Green any favors. I wouldn’t touch the moneyline at -500, but a decision prop or parlay leg makes more sense.
- Pick: Daniel Zellhuber by Decision
Sofia Montenegro vs Ernesta Kareckaite:
This is the best value on the card. Kareckaite has four split decisions in her six career wins. She doesn’t finish fights, and she doesn’t clearly win rounds.
Montenegro got a UFC contract off a split decision loss on the Contender Series because she looked that good in defeat. She marches forward with power and aggression. If the judges have to pick between visible damage and light volume, Montenegro benefits. I’m all over her at +210.
- Pick: Sofia Montenegro (+210)
Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson:
This line opened at even money and has already moved to -180 for Perez. It should keep going. Perez just beat Karol Rosa with nonstop takedown pressure, and Chiasson is 5’11” with long limbs but can’t handle wrestlers. Perez is going to drag her down and grind out a decision.
- Pick: Ailin Perez by Decision
Wes Schultz vs Damian Pinas:
I believe the public has this backwards. Schultz is a credentialed wrestler who was 47-0 in high school, then an All-American at two levels of college wrestling. Pinas has power, but his takedown defense is suspect.
This isn’t Vegas judging either. Wrestling tends to score well with international commissions, and I’m confident Schultz controls position for most of this fight. Plus-money on Schultz at +210 is a gift.
- Pick: Wes Schultz (+210)
Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes:
Chairez’s two UFC losses came to current flyweight champion Joshua Van and top contender Tatsuro Taira. Against everyone else, he’s looked solid. He just submitted CJ Vergara, and it should be too long and too tricky for Bunes, who has terrible takedown defense at 40% and averages fewer than three significant strikes per minute.
The moneyline at -325 isn’t worth it. Target Chairez inside the distance instead.
- Pick: Edgar Chairez Inside the Distance
UFC Mexico City Early Value
Montenegro at +210 is the best dog shot on this card. Kareckaite can’t put fights away, and Montenegro hits hard enough to make it ugly. If you’re looking for a close fight that’s mispriced, that’s it.
Schultz at +210 is another plus-money play worth grabbing early. His wrestling credentials are legit, and Pinas can be taken down. On the favorites side, Perez at -180 should be closer to -250 given how badly Chiasson struggles with wrestling pressure. Those are your best early UFC Mexico City bets.
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