- Tonight’s UFC Houston is headlined by the Strickland vs Hernandez middleweight bout
- Hernandez averages 6.46 takedowns per 15 minutes and should be able to control this fight on the mat
- See my UFC Houston predictions, picks and odds for the Strickland vs Hernandez Main Card, below
The UFC is back in Houston tonight for a 14-fight card highlighted by the Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez middleweight bout. The clash is a battle between the #3 and #4 middleweight contenders, with online sportsbooks installing Hernandez as a sizeable favorite.
The UFC Houston prelims are set to get underway from the Toyota Center, in Houston, TX, at 5 pm ET on Paramount+, with the Main Card fights starting at 8 pm ET also on Paramount+.
Here are my UFC Houston predictions, picks and odds for the Strickland vs Hernandez Main Card.
UFC Houston Picks #1: Anthony Hernandez Takedowns
I don’t want to lay -278 with Hernandez, but I do think he is easily the right side. He has an engine that just doesn’t quit, and applies relentless pressure with his grappling.
Hernandez enters the fight averaging 6.46 takedowns per 15 minutes. Given that this is a 5 round fight that’s expected to go the distance (25 minutes), he should easily clear 6.5 takedowns. Strickland is a competent grappler, with a 76% takedown defense, but those stats have been accumulated versus fighters with far less of a grappling pedigree.
Hernandez has an 82% grappling control rate and gives opponents fits with his constant scrambling and endless mat returns. He seems to always be one step ahead of his opponent, and Strickland has looked slow and flat in recent bouts.
Strickland vs Hernandez Tale of the Tape
Strickland is the more potent striker, but his pop isn’t overpowering enough to prevent Hernandez from charging forward. Hernandez will start slow while he feels his enemy out, and then will press down hard on the gas pedal over the ladder half of the fight accumulating one takedown after another.
- UFC Houston Predictions: Anthony Hernandez Over 6.5 Takedowns (-115 at DraftKings)
UFC Houston Main Card Odds
Odds as of Feb. 21 at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Houston on Saturday.
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UFC Houston Picks #2: Ante Delija Moneyline
For my next selection, I’m grabbing Ante Delija on the moneyline versus Sergehei Spivac in a heavyweight tilt. If you want to get spicy, you can parlay Delija’s moneyline with under 1.5 rounds at +150, as I don’t see this bout lasting long.
That’s because Spivac offers little defense, and is willing to eat shots as he tries to plod foward and force his way into the clinch. Against some fighters that might work, but Delija’s hands are too quick, and his superior boxing skills should drop his opponent early on.
- UFC Houston Predictions: Ante Delija Moneyline (-118 at DraftKings)
UFC Houston Picks #3: Geoff Neal Method of Victory
I’ll move to welterweight for my last pick, taking Geoff Neal to stop Uros Medic. Neither one of these fighters are considered championship material, and Neal has a great track record against lower level competition.
The American has never lost to anyone outside the top-16 in his division, with five of his eight wins coming by knockout. He’s a powerful striking southpaw who’s willing to stand tall and exchange blows, which is exactly how Medic wants to fight as well.
The problem for Medic is that he’s performed poorly versus lefties every time he’s faced them. He was finished by both southpaws he fought, as well as by Matthew Semelsberger, a stance switcher who chose to fight him out of a southpaw stance.
- UFC Houston Predictions: Geoff Neal Win by KO/TKO/DQ (-135 at DraftKings)
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