- Team Sweden is a -184 moneyline favorite over Finland in Group B Olympic Men’s Hockey on Friday
- Finland was stunned in its opener, losing to Slovakia
- Read below for my Finland vs Sweden prediction, prop bets and odds for Friday’s matchup below
It’s just their second game of the Men’s Olympic Hockey tournament, and already, team Finland finds itself in a jam, with longtime rival Sweden in position to sink their hopes in Milan, when these two teams collide this morning in Group B action.
Sweden, who wiped out Italy in its opener, finds itself as the betting favorite. The Finns were upset by Slovakia, leaving Finland with a lot of work to do to advance.
Puck drop is set for 6:10am ET from Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena, with Peacock carrying the broadcast. Here are my Finland vs Sweden prediction, prop bets, plus the latest odds.
Finland vs Sweden Prediction
- Under 5.5 goals (-118 at bet365)
SPORTSBOOK
There aren’t a lot of enticing wagers. While it feels like Finland and Sweden always play each other close, Finland at +1.5 on the puck line isn’t that enticing at -176. Alas, we’ll target the total, which offers a much more tenable -118 for the teams to go Under 5.5 goals.
For Finland, it felt like they were behind the 8-ball all night in their opener against Slovakia. They surrendered the first goal less than halfway through the first period. While they did draw even to make it 1-1 going into the third, Slovakia drilled home three unanswered goals for the stunning 4-1 victory.
Could it be that Finland simply lost the battle in net? They peppered Samuel Hlavaj with 40 shots on goal, but on a team with accomplished goal scorers like Mikko Rantanen, Sebastian Aho and Hintz Roope, only Eeli Tolvanen was able to hang one on the board.
Juuse Saros allowed three goals on 24 shots in his Olympic debut. Their defense also took a hit when all-world center Aleksander Barkov did not make it to Italy due to a knee injury.
Sweden might have gotten off on the wrong foot, giving up the first goal to Italy in a nightmarish start, but they showed why they are one of the medal favorites at Milano Cortina, eventually cruising to a 5-2 win over the host nation.
The Swedes were relentless in peppering Italian goalie Davide Fadani with 60 shots on goal for the contest.
Offensively, they spread the love with five different players scoring goals, including Gabriel Landeskog, William Nylander and Mika Zibanejad. Rasmus Dahlin picked up three assists.
This Scandinavian rivalry was last battled on the 4 Nations front, with Finland knocking off Sweden 4-3 in overtime.
But that game — and score — is more the outlier than the norm. The Swedes and Finns are more accustomed to going low, with the two combining to go Under 5.5 goals in four of their last six meetings in major tournament action.
While it’s not an absolute must-win, it’s about as close as it gets for Finland, who would need to beat Italy and get a ton of help if it takes the L here. Keeping that diverse Swedish offensive attack under control should be priority number one, while hoping to get a few more pucks past Jesper Wallstedt.
Finland vs Sweden Props
Anytime Goalscorer Odds
Odds via Bet365.
There’s plenty of firepower on both sides, with only William Nylander and Adrian Kempe of Sweden getting odds less than +200 for an anytime goal. Plenty of value down near the bottom, into the +300 range, especially if you think Finland will be potting more than one goal in a game that will likely determine their fate in surviving or drowning in Group B.
- Mikael Granlund Anytime Goal (+350 at Bet365)
Do vibes carry across continents? The last time Mikael Granlund faced off against Sweden, he was busy potting the overtime winner at the 4 Nations.
The veteran forward for the Anaheim Ducks has 12 goals this year, and was quiet heading into the tournament, scoring in just one of his final eight games. That game did produce a hat-trick, though, and a tilt against their rivals might just be the juice he needs to get back on the scoresheet.
- Rasmus Dahlin 2+ points (+270 at Bet365)
The Sabres’ defenceman entered the Olympics with points in seven straight games, and opened against Italy with three assists to lead the team in scoring.
Dahlin also tallied a goal in the 4 Nations game against Finland. He’s rolling right now and should be prominent in the biggest game of the tournament for Sweden (so far).
Finland vs Sweden Odds
Odds as of Feb. 13 via Bet365. Check out SBD’s Bet365 promo code to bet on the 2026 Winter Olympics.
If you’re looking for the best value, you’d be taking Finland to upset the Swedes at +160 odds. Second would be taking Sweden on the puck line at -1.5, which pays out at +140 odds. That’s a lot more appealing than a Sweden win, which pays out at -193 on the moneyline.
Taking Finland and getting 1.5 goals is slightly more digestible at -167, but still not exactly a great value. The total is set at 5.5 goals.
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