- No. 12 Gonzaga is a 4.5 point favorite over Santa Clara Saturday evening
- Both teams are having outstanding seasons as the top two squads in the WCC
- See my top Gonzaga vs Santa Clara picks and predictions on Saturday
A pivotal WCC duel tips off Saturday evening as the No. 12 Gonzaga Bulldogs (24-2, 12-1 WCC, 6-1 road, 14-12-0 ATS) visit the conference leading Santa Clara Broncos (22-5, 13-1 WCC, 13-0 home, 14-11-1 ATS) at 7:30 pm PT / 10:30 pm ET. ESPN will carry the national broadcast.
Gonzaga has won 24 of 26 contests on the campaign, though they lost three battles ago versus Portland 87-80. Santa Clara, meanwhile, has racked up nine straight victories and 13 of 14, with the lone defeat coming at the hands of the Bulldogs 89-77 on January 8th. That was Gonzaga’s whopping 29th win in their last 31 against the Broncos. This betting preview dissects the key angles, market movements, and value picks for this high-intensity conference clash.
Gonzaga vs Santa Clara Picks & Predictions
I’m bullish on Gonzaga controlling this game from start to finish, which aligns with what the betting public is going with, also. In their latest meeting on January 8th, the Bulldogs pulled off an 89-77 victory, led by Senior forward Graham Ike’s game-high 34 points. He was scintillating, going 13-for-17 from the floor, and also had a game-high eleven boards.
GU vs SCU Spread Pick: Gonzaga -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
I’m very comfortable going with Gonzaga to not only win, but also cover, given that they are better than their counterparts in a plethora of statistics. Additionally, in 18 of their last 20 meetings, they’ve won by at least five points.
Gonzaga vs Santa Clara Statistical Breakdown
Gonzaga is 24-2 on the year, with all but one of those triumphs resulting in a margin of victory by six or more. The Bulldogs are battle tested as well, having won four of five battles against top-25 teams in the country. Santa Clara’s leading scorer is sophomore guard Christian Hammond, averaging 16.4 points per game, though he scored just 14 points last meeting. The Broncos have been on a heater, with nine straight wins and 13 of 14, but lost to the Bulldogs last month.
Gonzaga vs Santa Clara Public-Betting Splits
The data from Saturday’s college basketball public betting percentages reveal a distinct sharp-versus-public divide in the spread market. The public is going all-in with the expectation that the favored unit will emerge victorious.
Moneyline Splits
Bettors are showing little hesitation regarding the outright winner.
- Gonzaga Bulldogs: 93% of Bets / 97% of Money
- Santa Clara Broncos: 7% of Bets / 3% of Money
The overwhelming support for Gonzaga on the moneyline indicates the market views the Bulldogs as a safe leverage piece for parlays, showing zero confidence in a Santa Clara upset, despite their 13-1 conference record (lone loss was to Gonzaga).
ATS Splits
The spread market highlights a potential value opportunity on the favorite.
- Gonzaga Bulldogs: 55% of Bets / 65% of Money
- Santa Clara Broncos: 45% of Bets / 35% of Money
55% of spread tickets are backing the Bulldogs -4.5, and the money percentage for Gonzaga (65%) shows bettors are thinking they’ll be able to cover. However, the public is totally convinced that the favorites will wax the underdogs, with 45% of wagers thinking that Santa Clara can keep this a very close matchup.
Total Market
- Over 158.5: 82% of Bets / 84% of Money
- Under 158.5: 18% of Bets / 16% of Money
A significant majority of both tickets and handle are on the Over 158.5 points, with four straight meetings resulting in at least 166 total points accumulated. On the season, Gonzaga has the most points per outing in the WCC (87.4), while Santa Clara is second (83.6), which totals to 171.
Gonzaga vs Santa Clara Odds
Saturday’s college basketball odds price Gonzaga as a significant favorite, reflecting the road squad’s dominance in this series and statistical advantages.
- Moneyline: Gonzaga -210 | Santa Clara +172
- Point Spread: Gonzaga -4.5 (-110) | Santa Clara +4.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 158.5 (-110)
Odds as of 2:20 pm ET, February 14, at FanDuel.
Implied Probabilities and Win Projection
Removing the vig provides the market’s true expectations for the matchup:
- Gonzaga Win Probability: 64.8%
- Santa Clara Win Probability: 35.2%
The market assigns Gonzaga nearly an 65% chance of victory, consistent with the -210 moneyline price.
Moneyline Payout Calculation
For bettors assessing the risk-reward ratio on a standard $100 wager:
- Betting Gonzaga (-210): Returns a profit of $48 (Total Payout: $148.00).
- Betting Santa Clara (+172): Returns a profit of $172.00 (Total Payout: $272.00).
While the return on Santa Clara is substantial, the smart money is on the favored Bulldogs, particularly given they won by twelve over the Broncos last month and have won 29 of 31 against them. In the March Madness championship odds, Gonzaga can be found at +3500 at Caesars, while Santa Clara is a massive +40000 longshot.
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