- Opening odds are out for Friday’s men’s Olympic hockey semi-finals at the 2026 Winter Olympics
- Canada is a -490 favorite over Finland, while the USA is a whopping -820 against Slovakia
- Keep reading for semi-final odds, quarter-final recaps, and updated gold medal futures
The men’s Olympic hockey semi-finals are set after a wild quarter-final round that needed three overtime games to sort things out. Canada faces Finland and the USA draws Slovakia on Friday, February 20, with the winners meeting Sunday for gold.
FanDuel has released opening odds for both games, and neither is particularly close. Canada is -490 against Finland, while the USA is an eye-popping -820 over Slovakia. Here’s a full look at the semi-final odds, how each team got here, and the updated gold medal futures.
Finland vs Canada Odds
Odds as of Feb. 18 at FanDuel.
Finland vs Canada Semi-Final Preview
Canada’s -490 moneyline carries roughly an 83% implied win probability. Finland at +365 means a $100 bet would return $365 in profit if the Finns pull the upset. Puck drop for this one is 10:40 AM ET on Friday.
Canada has been the best team in the tournament, going 4-0 with a 24-6 goal differential. Connor McDavid leads all skaters with 9 points (3G, 6A), while Macklin Celebrini has been a revelation with 4 goals and 8 points. Nathan MacKinnon (5G, 1A) and Sidney Crosby (3G, 3A) round out a loaded scoring attack that four other nations can only dream about.
The quarter-final wasn’t a cakewalk, though. Canada trailed Czechia before rallying, with Mitch Marner potting the overtime winner. The bigger concern is Crosby, who left with a lower-body injury. His status for Friday is worth monitoring closely.
Jordan Binnington has been sharp in net with a 95.38% save percentage, and Canada’s penalty kill has been flawless at 100% through four games. Four of the tournament’s top five scorers are Canadian, which is just absurd depth.
Finland got here the hard way, erasing a 2-0 deficit against Switzerland in the quarters. Sebastian Aho tied it late in regulation before Finland won in overtime. The Finns are 3-0-0-1 in the tournament with 22 goals for, but they’ve also allowed 12, the most of any remaining team. They lost 4-1 to Slovakia in group play, which is why they’re such heavy underdogs here.
Slovakia vs USA Odds
Odds as of Feb. 18 at FanDuel.
Slovakia vs USA Semi-Final Preview
The USA at -820 is the heaviest favorite on the board. That’s about an 89% implied win probability. Slovakia’s +550 moneyline would pay out $550 on a $100 bet, but oddsmakers clearly don’t see it happening. This one gets going at 3:10 PM ET on Friday.
The Americans are 4-0 with an 18-5 goal differential and got contributions across the lineup all tournament. Quinn Hughes scored the overtime winner against Sweden in the quarters after Dylan Larkin opened the scoring. Connor Hellebuyck has been a wall in net, posting a 95.77% save percentage.
Slovakia has been the surprise of the tournament, going 4-0, including a group-stage win over Finland. They hammered Germany 6-2 in the quarters, with Pavol Regenda scoring twice and Dalibor Dvorsky adding a goal and an assist. Juraj Slafkovsky has 4 goals and 7 points, third in overall tournament scoring. This team has real talent and plays with an edge.
Still, the all-time series between USA and Slovakia is tight at 11-10 in America’s favor, and Slovakia beat the Americans 3-2 in a shootout at the 2022 Beijing Olympics. Slovakia’s power play has also been the best in the tournament at 30%, so if the Americans take penalties, this could get interesting. Don’t write them off completely at +550.
2026 Olympic Hockey Gold Medal Odds
Odds as of Feb. 18 at FanDuel. New customers can claim the FanDuel promo code and get a bonus to bet on the Olympics.
The gold medal futures tell you everything. Canada (-125) and the USA (+115) are priced like the only two teams that matter, with Finland and Slovakia as extreme longshots at +1400 and +2700. The expected Canada vs USA gold medal game is set for Sunday, February 22 at 8:10 AM ET, and oddsmakers have those two on a collision course.
We’ll have full predictions for both semi-finals closer to Friday’s puck drop. For now, keep an eye on Crosby’s injury status, as that could move the Finland-Canada line before game time.
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