- The Oilers are -115 road moneyline favorites versus the Ducks
- Connor McDavid’s status is still up in the air
- See my Oilers vs Ducks prediction, plus starting goalies and best bets for tonight, below
For the first time in three weeks, there’s NHL hockey on the schedule tonight, with one of the marquee matchups featuring the Edmonton Oilers (28-22-8, 13-12-4 away) visiting the Anaheim Ducks (30-23-3, 17-8-1 home).
The big question on everyone’s mind is the status of Connor McDavid, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be suiting up. Online sportsbooks are still siding with the Oilers in the latest NHL odds, pegging them as a short road favorite. I believe that’s a mistake, as Anaheim was red-hot heading into the break, while Edmonton is still dealing with defensive issues, on top of the possibility that their star won’t play.
Puck drop for this Western Conference clash is set for 7:30 pm PT, 10:30 pm ET, inside the Honda Center, in Anaheim, CA, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
Here is my Oilers vs Ducks prediction, along with the starting goalies and my best bets for tonight.
Oilers vs Ducks Prediction and Best Bets
- Anaheim Ducks Moneyline (-105 at BetMGM)
- Beckett Sennecke 3+ Shots (+125 at DraftKings)
McDavid was supposed arrive in Anaheim on Tuesday night, but if the Oilers have their way, he’ll be resting tonight. Edmonton kicks off a three games in four nights road trip versus the Ducks, and the team has stated they’d like to give the Hart Trophy odds contender an extra day’s rest coming back from the Olympics.
It doesn’t appear that oddsmakers expect him to play, because you’d have to think Edmonton would be a much bigger favorite if he was suiting up. These two teams met last month, and the Oilers were laying -275 on the moneyline. Granted, that game was in Edmonton, but home ice isn’t worth nearly double the odds to simply win the hockey game.
McDavid’s potential absence is huge, given just how dominant he is. Everyone saw him bring home MVP honors at the Olympics, where he led all skaters in points and total chance contributions by a wide margin.
This season, only Nathan MacKinnon posts a higher WAR than McDavid, while the Oilers star leads the NHL in points and assists. He racked up 60 points in his final 32 games before the break, but Edmonton still struggled to gain ground in the Stanley Cup odds.
The biggest reason is their play in their own end. Tristan Jarry, more on him later, hasn’t been the answer in net they were hoping for, and the team ranks bottom-four in goals against. Their total goals allowed is right in line with their expected goals allowed, so they’re not getting unlucky; they’re just playing poorly defensively.
Zooming in a little tighter, the Oilers have been of the worst defensive teams since January 12th, allowing a league-high 155 high-danger chances, and the seventh most shots against in 5-on-5 play.
EDM vs ANA: Advanced 5-on-5 Stats Since Jan. 12
Contrast that with Anaheim, who were 9-2 over their last 11 outings before the break and sit just one point back of McDavid and Co. During that stretch, they allowed only 16 goals, and 65 fewer high-danger scoring chances than Edmonton.
Sure, their offense isn’t as potent as the Oilers’, but help is on the way. Leo Carlsson, the team’s second leading scorer, could be activated tonight after missing the last month-plus with a leg injury. The issue kept him out of the Olympics, and he adds scoring and playmaking to complement team leader Cutter Gauthier.
Another Duck to keep your eye on is Beckett Sennecke, who’s been on fire lately. The rookie has 10 points, including 3 goals over his last 11 games, and chipped in 2 assists in Anaheim’s first meeting versus Edmonton this season.
He’s currently sports +125 odds to record 3+ shots on goal tonight, which is a bet I’ll be placing along with my Ducks moneyline wager. Sennecke has cleared 3+ shots in four of his last five outings, and had 7 shots against the Oilers last month.
Oilers vs Ducks Starting Goalies
While still not confirmed as of 2 pm ET, the expected Oilers vs Ducks starting goalies are Tristan Jarry and Lukas Dostal tonight.
Tristan Jarry vs Lukas Dostal Stats
Their performance has been trending in the opposite direction recently, which is another reason why I’m betting Anaheim tonight. Dostal is 8-1 in his last nine NHL starts, and nearly lead Czechia to an upset win over Canada in the medal round with a 37-save performance.
Jarry on the other hand, has just an .870 save percentage in 11 starts since joining Edmonton, losing five times and allowing 21 goals over his last five outings.
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