Sweden vs Slovakia Prediction, Best Bets, Odds & Lineups for Olympic Men’s Hockey (Saturday, Feb. 14)
- Sweden is a -700 moneyline favorite over Slovakia in Saturday’s Group B finale
- Slovakia is 2-0 and only needs a single point to clinch the group — expect a tight, defensive approach
- See my Sweden vs Slovakia prediction and picks, plus odds, best bets and projected lineups below
Sweden (1-1) and Slovakia (2-0) close out Group B on Saturday morning, and the Sweden vs Slovakia odds don’t match what we’ve actually seen on the ice. The Swedes are -700 on the moneyline per the latest NHL odds, but they’ve been underwhelming through two games, while Slovakia has been one of the best stories of the tournament.
The Sweden vs Slovakia spread is set at 2.5 goals, with the total at 5.5. I think there’s value on both of those numbers heading into Saturday.
Puck drop is set for 6:10 am ET from Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena. Keep reading for my Sweden vs Slovakia prediction and picks, plus odds, best bets and projected lineups.
Sweden vs Slovakia Prediction and Picks
- Slovakia +2.5 (-125 at Caesars)
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I’m fading Sweden on the spread for my Sweden vs Slovakia prediction. The group context is everything here.
Slovakia sits at 2-0 with a plus-4 goal differential. A single point, even an overtime loss, clinches them the top spot in Group B and a guaranteed quarterfinal bye. That’s a recipe for low-event, defensive hockey, not the wide-open game Sweden needs to blow this open.
Sweden hasn’t earned that -700 price tag. They squeaked by Italy in their opener and then got handled 4-1 by Finland on Friday. Rasmus Dahlin’s power play goal was their only tally against the Finns, and the power play went just 1-for-6 overall. Between Elias Pettersson, William Nylander, Mika Zibanejad, Jesper Bratt and Lucas Raymond, you’d never know these are franchise NHL players based on the first two games.
Slovakia has been the surprise of the tournament so far. They beat Finland 4-1 in what was probably the biggest upset of the Games, and Juraj Slafkovsky leads the entire Olympics with four points in two games. The kid won bronze and tournament MVP in Beijing at 17 years old. He’s built for this stage.
Samuel Hlavaj should get the start in net for the Slovaks after sitting out the Italy game. He stopped 39 of 40 shots against Finland, and a rested goalie in a game where Slovakia is content to sit back and defend is a tough matchup for anyone laying -2.5.
Sweden probably wins this game. But covering 2.5 goals against a confident, structured team that benefits from overtime? That’s a big ask. Even a 3-1 Sweden win cashes Slovakia +2.5. Give me the Slovaks and the goals.
Sweden vs Slovakia Best Bets
- Under 5.5 Goals (+105 at Caesars)
This pairs well with the Slovakia spread play as one of my Sweden vs Slovakia best bets. If the Slovaks keep doing what they’ve been doing — playing tight, limiting chances — we don’t need a ton of goals to cash.
Sweden has scored six goals in two games. That’s fine, but four of those came against an Italian squad that’s winless. Against Finland’s Juuse Saros, they managed just one. Slovakia has played a disciplined, structured game under coach Vladimir Orszagh, and avoiding penalties will be key given how Sweden leans on its loaded power play.
Sweden is also likely to change goalies after Filip Gustavsson struggled in both starts. Jacob Markstrom is the projected starter, and while he won gold at the 2013 World Championships, he’s had a rough NHL season with the Devils — a 15-13-1 record, 3.20 GAA and .882 save percentage in 30 games. A first Olympic start on the back end of a back-to-back isn’t ideal.
I see a 3-1 or 3-2 game here. Both of those would stay well under 5.5. I’ll grab this at plus money all day.
- Juraj Slafkovsky Anytime Goal (+265 at Caesars)
My favorite Sweden vs Slovakia prop bet is Slafkovsky anytime goal. He has two goals and two assists in two games, and he’s been the best player for either team in Group B so far. The Canadiens’ first overall pick from 2022 scored seven goals and won MVP at the Beijing Olympics when he was a teenager. He’s even better now.
Sweden has allowed the first goal in both games this tournament. If Slovakia scores first, the game slows way down, and Sweden has to chase. Slafkovsky can make that happen.
Sweden vs Slovakia Odds
Odds as of Feb. 13 at bet365. Check out SBD’s Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on Olympic hockey this weekend.
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The Sweden vs Slovakia spread sits at 2.5 goals, with the Swedes laying -105 and Slovakia getting +2.5 at -125. The moneyline is -700 for Sweden, which translates to roughly an 87.5% implied probability. Slovakia’s +400 price implies about a 20% chance of an upset.
The 60-minute 3-way line is also worth a look at the Sweden vs Slovakia odds: Sweden is -500 in regulation, with a draw at +550 and Slovakia at +850. That draw number is interesting because getting to overtime is Slovakia’s clearest path to winning the group.
If you’re looking for alternative NHL betting apps to shop this line, DraftKings has Slovakia +2.5 at +102, while FanDuel is offering Sweden -2.5 at -135.
Sweden vs Slovakia Projected Lineups
Team Sweden Projected Lines
Forwards:
Adrian Kempe – Joel Eriksson Ek – William Nylander
Filip Forsberg – Elias Lindholm – Lucas Raymond
Jesper Bratt – Elias Pettersson – Mika Zibanejad
Gabriel Landeskog – Alexander Wennberg – Rickard Rakell
Defense:
Gustav Forsling – Rasmus Dahlin
Philip Broberg – Erik Karlsson
Victor Hedman – Rasmus Andersson
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Filip Forsberg
Goalie: Jacob Markstrom (projected)
Markstrom is expected to get the call after Gustavsson allowed the first goal in both starts and struggled particularly against Finland. The Sweden projected lineup has all the names you’d want on the blue line — Forsling, Dahlin, Karlsson, Hedman — but they’ve been outmuscled in all three zones. Nylander has a point in each game and could be due for a bigger night, but the Swedes badly need Pettersson and Zibanejad to wake up.
Team Slovakia Projected Lines
Forwards:
Juraj Slafkovsky – Adam Ruzicka – Tomas Tatar
Milos Kelemen – Martin Pospisil – Pavol Regenda
Adam Liska – Dalibor Dvorsky – Libor Hudacek
Samuel Takac – Matus Sukel – Oliver Okuliar
Defense:
Martin Fehervary – Simon Nemec
Martin Gernat – Erik Cernak
Martin Marincin – Peter Ceresnak
Patrik Koch – Lukas Cingel
Goalie: Samuel Hlavaj (projected)
Hlavaj should be rested and ready after watching the Italy game from the bench. The Iowa Wild prospect stopped 39 of 40 shots in Slovakia’s 4-1 upset of Finland, and he’ll need another big performance here. Everyone knows about Slafkovsky, but Adam Ruzicka has scored in both games so far, including the game-winner against Italy. St. Louis Blues prospect Dalibor Dvorsky has chipped in too, giving Slovakia more up the middle than most people expected.
Sweden vs Slovakia How to Watch
Puck drop for Saturday’s Group B finale is set for 6:10 am ET from Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will air on USA Network and Peacock in the US, and on Sportsnet and CBC Gem in Canada.
This is the last game of preliminary play for both teams, and Slovakia has all the leverage. Win, lose in overtime, or just keep it close — the Slovaks only need a point to top the group heading into Saturday morning.
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