- The Waste Management Phoenix Open tees off on Thursday, February 5th
- Sepp Straka ranks top-five in the field in strokes gained approach, opportunities gained and par 5 scoring over the last 50 Rounds
- See my Waste Management Phoenix Open best longshot picks for 2026 below
The PGA Tour’s biggest party of the year tees off on Thursday, February 5th from TPC Scottsdale. The Waste Management Phoenix Open acts as the perfect lead in to the Super Bowl, with the tournament often coming down to the wire.
Success at TPC Scottsdale depends on a complete tee-to-green game, with an extra emphasis on driving and par-5 scoring. This tournament has produced a longshot winner of 100-1 or longer in back to back years, and I’ve got a trio of players with long odds in the outright and finishing position markets that I’m looking to target.
Keep reading for my Waste Management Phoenix Open best longshot picks for 2026, as well as the reasoning behind each selection.
Waste Management Phoenix Open Best Longshot Picks
My favorite longshot in the outright market is Sepp Straka. The big Austrian is the #12 player in the world, but for some unknown reason is priced behind 34 other golfers. I’m also betting on David Thompson to finish T-10 or better at +610 odds, and John Keefer to crack the top-20 at +320.
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Waste Management Phoenix Open Longshot Pick #1: Sepp Straka to Win
- Sepp Straka to Win (+8000 at DraftKings)
Look no further than last week when a mispriced golfer claimed victory. Justin Rose, the now #3 player in the world, was priced at +6000 to win at Torrey Pines, and promptly dusted the field.
I’m banking on a similar result this week with Straka, a player who has plenty of win equity. Straka won twice last year at the AmEx and Truist Championship. He’s also won at PGA National, a comp course for TPC Scottsdale, and checks the strokes gained metrics I’m looking for.
Sepp Straka Strokes Gaine Ranks – Last 50 Rounds
Straka ranks top-five in the field over the last 50 rounds in strokes gained approach, opportunities gained, and par-5 scoring. He’s not too far behind in strokes gained off the tee, ranking 20th, and finished 15th here in 2025.
The Austrian started the season strong with a third place result at the Hero World Challenge, and ranks second over the last 50 rounds in my statistical model, behind only World #1 Scottie Scheffler, the overwhelming betting favorite.
Waste Management Phoenix Open Longshot Pick #2: Davis Thompson Top-10
- Davis Thompson Top-10 (+610 at bet365)
On to Thompson now, who has the tee-to-green game to be a star. Thompson is an absolute flusher of the golf ball, ranking 15th in strokes gained off the tee, and top-30 on approach. He’s also ninth in this field in opportunities gained, which calculates how often your approach shots land within 12 feet.
The putter is the one thing that holds him back, but when that part of his game is break even or better he competes. Since the 2024 Valero Open, there’s been only one instance in a non-Major where he’s finished outside the top-25 when he hasn’t lost strokes on the green.
We’ve seen the ceiling before with a win at the John Deere and a bunch of top-5 and top-10 results, and he came 15th in Phoenix two years ago. He’s definitely capable of improving upon that finish and getting inside the top-10 if the putter cooperates, and at +610 I’m willing to take that chance.
Waste Management Phoenix Open Longshot Pick #3: John Keefer Top-20
- John Keefer Top-20 (+320 at DraftKings)
Another big hitter looking to shake his putting woes is Keefer. His tee-to-green game is off the charts, as he’s started his PGA Tour career by gaining at least 4 strokes ball striking in four of his first seven starts.
He’s only parlayed that elite ball striking into one top-20, but TPC Scottsdale sets up perfectly for his game. Keefer mashes it off the tee and will give himself plenty of makeable birdie looks. If the putter gets hot, he could even flirt with the first page leaderboard, so I don’t hate also taking a sprinkle of his top-10 (+750) and top-5 (+1750) finishing position odds.
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