- UFC Fight Night takes place Saturday, March 14th from the Apex in Las Vegas
- Kevin Vallejos is a massive -550 favorite over veteran Josh Emmett in the main event
- Check out the early UFC Fight Night odds, predictions and best value below
The UFC is back at the Apex this Saturday with a 14-fight card headlined by Kevin Vallejos and Josh Emmett. Vallejos is one of the most exciting young featherweights in the sport, and the UFC is clearly looking to catapult him into the rankings with a win over a recognizable name.
The early prelims kick off at 2:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with the main card starting around 6:15 pm ET. Here are the early UFC Fight Night odds and my predictions for the card.
Early UFC Fight Night Odds
The biggest favorite on the card is Kevin Vallejos at -550 over Josh Emmett in the main event. That’s an implied probability of 84.6% for the young Argentine, which feels about right given what we’ve seen from Emmett lately.
Beatriz Mesquita is the next heaviest chalk at -470 in just her second UFC fight. The closest fight on the board is Tavares vs Anders at -135/+114.
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Odds as of March 10th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Grab a DraftKings promo code for UFC Fight Night or browse UFC betting apps.
Early Emmett vs Vallejos Prediction
This fight is textbook UFC matchmaking. Take an aging veteran with some name value and feed him to the young prospect you want to promote.
Vallejos is 17-1 with his only loss being a close decision to Jean Silva on the Contender Series when he was just 21. Since then, he’s rattled off six straight wins, including three in the UFC, capped by a second-round TKO of Giga Chikadze where he landed 62.5% of his significant strikes.
Emmett (19-6) is 1-4 in his last five fights. His only win in that stretch was that insane knockout of Bryce Mitchell, which keeps him dangerous on paper. But he got stopped in 98 seconds by Youssef Zalal in his last outing, and he just turned 41.
Emmett has stopped wrestling in recent years and has become a guy who loads up looking for the big shot. Vallejos is fast, aggressive, and has never been knocked down in the UFC or Contender Series. That speed and durability combo is a nightmare for a slower power puncher.
I think Vallejos picks him apart on the feet and gets the stoppage. The -550 moneyline is way too juiced, but the method of victory market should have better value.
- Emmett vs Vallejos Early Pick: Kevin Vallejos by KO/TKO/DQ (price TBD at DraftKings)
Early Lemos vs Robertson Prediction
This fight was originally supposed to go down at UFC Vegas 112, but it got scrapped when Lemos wasn’t medically cleared. Not much has changed since then.
Robertson is on a four-fight winning streak since moving to strawweight. She’s the all-time leader in submissions at 115 pounds and averages nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes. In her last fight, she finished Marina Rodriguez with 5:21 of control time and two takedowns.
Lemos has real knockout power, but she got completely smothered by Tatiana Suarez in her last fight, getting controlled for 9:34 and taken down three times. Robertson’s takedowns aren’t as clean as Suarez’s, but the volume is constant.
The -198 moneyline is fair, but I think the better play is Robertson by submission. Laying juice on a grappler in Vegas is risky since judges tend to discount wrestling, and the method of victory market gives a better return.
- Lemos vs Robertson Early Pick: Gillian Robertson by Submission (price TBD at DraftKings)
Other UFC Fight Night Predictions
Oumar Sy vs Ion Cutelaba:
Cutelaba is a feast-or-famine guy at this point. He’s either knocking somebody out or getting knocked out, with very little in between.
Sy is bigger at 6’5″ with an 84-inch reach compared to Cutelaba’s 6’1″ frame. He’s got explosive power on the feet and dangerous grappling. His lone loss came via decision to Alonzo Menifield, but he bounced back with a ground knockout of Brendson Ribeiro. I think Sy’s size and athleticism overwhelm Cutelaba in a relatively quick fight.
- Pick: Oumar Sy by KO/TKO (price TBD)
Myktybek Orolbai vs Chris Curtis:
Curtis just got a nice win at welterweight over Max Griffin, and now he’s back at middleweight against a young, aggressive grappler. Orolbai is coming off a quick knockout of Jack Hermansson and can wrestle anyone down when he commits to it.
Curtis used to have elite takedown defense in this division, but Brendan Allen took him down basically whenever he wanted. I expect Orolbai to do the same thing and grind out a decision.
- Pick: Myktybek Orolbai by Decision (price TBD)
Jose Delgado vs Andre Fili:
Fili is 35 and has gone 3-4 in his last seven fights with his striking accuracy dipping to 35% in recent outings. He’s still crafty enough to win rounds on the feet, and his wrestling is solid when he commits to it. But Delgado is a different animal.
The kid hits hard, he’s fast, and he earned back-to-back first-round TKOs after his Contender Series win. His only loss came on the scorecards against Nathaniel Wood, and even in that fight, he landed 134 significant strikes at 57.8% accuracy. The -310 moneyline is too much to lay, but Delgado should overwhelm Fili early.
- Pick: Jose Delgado by KO/TKO (price TBD)
Charles Johnson vs Bruno Silva:
Johnson is a busy, technical striker with great footwork and nearly five significant strikes per minute. The concern is that he just got knocked out by Alex Perez six weeks ago and is stepping in on short notice after Silva’s original opponent got moved to UFC Mexico.
Silva has heavy hands and can put anyone out in this division, but he fades as fights go on. If Johnson stays disciplined and avoids the early power shots, his volume should carry him. This fight makes me nervous given the quick turnaround though.
- Pick: Charles Johnson (-185)
Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund:
Petrino is the more technical fighter with seven submission wins on his record, and that’s where the value is. He’s won his last two with a TKO of Thomas Petersen (two knockdowns) and a first-round submission of Austen Lane.
Asplund is a volume machine who landed 170 significant strikes at 58% accuracy in a round and a half in his UFC debut. The -238 moneyline is too steep, but Petrino’s best path is to take Asplund down and find a submission rather than trading with a guy who won’t stop coming.
- Pick: Vitor Petrino by Submission (price TBD)
Brad Tavares vs Eryk Anders:
Two veterans in their late 30s are going at it. Tavares has fought everyone in this division over the last 15 years and has an impressive 81% takedown defense given his competition. Anders, meanwhile, is a physical athlete who leans on his wrestling when things get tough.
Both guys have durability concerns. Tavares got knocked out by Robert Bryczek, and Anders got flatlined by a spinning back elbow from Christian Leroy Duncan. Tavares is slightly faster and more technical, which makes him the deserving favorite at -135.
- Pick: Brad Tavares (-135)
Marwan Rahiki vs Harry Hardwick:
Rahiki is a flashy, aggressive striker making his UFC debut after a spectacular Contender Series performance where he landed 43 significant strikes and recorded two knockdowns. He throws everything, including spinning attacks.
Hardwick got his leg destroyed by Kaue Fernandes in his UFC debut, where he managed just 8 significant strikes. Rahiki’s creativity and pressure should be too much here.
- Pick: Marwan Rahiki by KO/TKO (price TBD)
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UFC Fight Night Early Value
The best early value on this card is in the method of victory markets. The Vallejos moneyline at -550 is unplayable, but his KO/TKO props should offer much better prices in a fight where the speed difference will be massive. Robertson by submission is another spot where the method of victory gives you a better return than laying -198 on the moneyline.
If you’re looking for plus-money plays, Anders at +114 is live if he wrestles, and Lemos at +164 has knockout upside against a grappler who can’t always hold people down. Sam Hughes at +130 against Rodriguez is another scrappy underdog who could steal rounds with her pressure and cardio. Those are your best early UFC Fight Night bets.
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