- UFC Seattle takes place Saturday, March 28th from Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington
- Israel Adesanya is a -135 favorite over Joe Pyfer in a middleweight main event
- Check out the early UFC Seattle odds, predictions and best value below
The UFC heads to the Pacific Northwest this Saturday for a 13-fight card at Climate Pledge Arena. Israel Adesanya headlines against Joe Pyfer in a middleweight main event, with Alexa Grasso and Maycee Barber running it back in the co-main. Five fighters on the card are from the Seattle area, so expect the building to be rocking.
Prelims kick off at 2:15 pm ET on ESPN+, with the main card at 5:15 pm ET. Here are the early UFC Seattle odds and my predictions for the card.
Early UFC Seattle Odds
Adesanya is a -135 favorite over Pyfer, which translates to roughly 57.4% implied probability. That feels about right for a guy who’s lost four of his last five but never to anyone outside the division’s elite.
The biggest favorites on the UFC Seattle card are Alexia Thainara (-700), Navajo Stirling (-600), and Michael Chiesa (-575). The tightest line belongs to Abdul-Malik vs Belgaroui at -118/-102, which is basically a pick’em. Barber is -180 over Grasso in the co-main, a notable shift from their first meeting.
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Odds as of March 25th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Grab a DraftKings promo code for UFC Seattle or browse UFC betting apps.
Early Adesanya vs Pyfer Prediction
Adesanya has lost four of his last five, and that’s the number everyone keeps pointing to. Fair enough. But look at who beat him. Dricus Du Plessis, Nassourdine Imavov, Sean Strickland, and Alex Pereira. That’s a former champ, a current champ, a guy who just beat the current champ, and a future title challenger. Pyfer is ranked 14th. There’s a gap.
Pyfer can crack. If he catches Izzy clean in the first two rounds, this thing could be over. But the cardio is a real problem. When Jack Hermansson dragged him into deep water, Pyfer faded badly down the stretch. He’s at his most dangerous early, and once that initial burst is gone, the fight tilts hard in Adesanya’s direction.
Tale of the Tape
Adesanya owns a five-inch reach advantage at 80 inches to Pyfer’s 75. He also stands three inches taller. Izzy’s entire game is built on managing distance and picking guys apart from the outside, and Pyfer has to close that gap to do any damage.
The concern is whether Izzy’s reaction time has slipped. Against Imavov, he kept extending both hands to parry in orthodox stance, leaving his chin wide open. Old Izzy was fast enough to lean back out of range. That margin is thinner now.
But Pyfer isn’t Imavov. He’s more of a plodding power puncher, and Adesanya should have an easier time reading what’s coming. I think Izzy outpoints him over five rounds.
- Adesanya vs Pyfer Early Pick: Israel Adesanya (-135 at DraftKings)
Early Grasso vs Barber Prediction
This is a rematch from 2021, and Grasso won pretty clearly the first time. She outboxed Barber, stayed mobile, and controlled the striking. So why is Barber the -180 favorite here? Probably because Grasso has gone 2-2-1 in her last five while Barber has rattled off seven straight wins.
I think this line has overcorrected. Grasso’s losses came against Valentina Shevchenko and Natalia Silva. Those aren’t bad losses. Shevchenko might be the greatest women’s fighter ever, and Silva could be champion by year’s end. Barber has been squeaking out tight decisions against lower-ranked fighters.
In the first fight, Barber landed just 40 significant strikes on 152 attempts. That’s a rough 26.3% accuracy rate. Grasso was much sharper at 46.9%. Barber did land three of five takedowns, but she couldn’t do much with them.
Barber at -180 is too steep for someone who already lost this matchup. Grasso at +150 is the play if you believe she’s the better pure fighter, and I do.
- Grasso vs Barber Early Pick: Alexa Grasso (+150 at DraftKings)
Other UFC Seattle Predictions
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Yousri Belgaroui:
The most interesting line on the UFC Seattle card. Abdul-Malik is undefeated at 9-0-1 and has finished three of his four UFC opponents. He’s a D1 wrestler with real knockout power, and he looked sharp submitting Antonio Trocoli in his last outing. But Belgaroui is no pushover. He stands 6’5″ with a kickboxing background and is training alongside Alex Pereira and Glover Teixeira in Connecticut.
Belgaroui just beat Azamat Bekoev, a powerful wrestler, which is exactly the profile Abdul-Malik fits. Meanwhile, Abdul-Malik went to a draw with Cody Brundage and got dropped by Nick Klein, so the unbeaten record comes with asterisks. At -118/-102, this is a coin flip. I’m leaning Belgaroui on the size and the fact that we just watched his wrestling defense hold up.
- Pick: Yousri Belgaroui (-102)
Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson:
McKinney has never seen a scorecard in 25 professional fights. Every single one ended in a finish, win or lose. He’s fighting near his hometown, and he’s explosive as anyone in the lightweight division.
Nelson is durable with real power in his hands, but he’s on a three-fight skid and doesn’t do anything better than McKinney other than survive.
If this goes past the first round, things could get weird. But I’m expecting McKinney to come out with bad intentions in front of the home crowd and get it done early.
- Pick: Terrance McKinney (-170)
Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price:
Chiesa at -575 is way too juicy to lay on the moneyline, but he should win comfortably. He’s a grinding wrestler on a three-fight win streak, fighting at home, taking on a guy who’s 1-4 in his last five on short notice.
Price stepped up after Chiesa’s original opponent fell through. He’s always fun to watch, but he’s lost a step. Chiesa will close the distance, get the takedowns, and smother him.
- Pick: Michael Chiesa by Submission (price TBD)
Lerryan Douglas vs Julian Erosa:
Douglas is a -325 favorite, and there’s no value laying that on the moneyline. He’s a well-rounded product out of CUB Swanson’s gym with fast hands and legit finishing ability.
Erosa is crafty and can snatch a neck if you get sloppy, but he absorbs way too much damage. Douglas should be the better striker and the better wrestler, and Erosa’s chin has been cracked in recent fights.
- Pick: Lerryan Douglas by KO/TKO (price TBD)
Tyrell Fortune vs Marcin Tybura:
Fortune makes his official UFC debut as a slight -130 favorite. He’s got a credentialed D2 wrestling background and serious pop in his hands. Tybura is a solid measuring stick at heavyweight, but he’s coming off a knockout loss and isn’t getting any younger.
Fortune has said publicly he plans to keep this standing and knock Tybura out. If that power lands clean, it probably will. The line is tight, and I’ll side with the younger, fresher fighter.
- Pick: Tyrell Fortune (-130)
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev:
Bahamondes at -290 is too much chalk on the moneyline, but the pick is right. He’s 6’3″ at lightweight with ridiculous reach, and he uses that length well.
Musayev isn’t a bad fighter, but he was submitted in the first round of his only UFC appearance and doesn’t have the tools to close the distance against someone this long. Bahamondes keeps it at range and lets his kicks go.
- Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes by KO/TKO (price TBD)
Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr.:
Hooper is the -278 favorite, and Seattle is basically his backyard. He’s a jiu-jitsu ace who’s been filling out physically and improving his takedowns. Gibson lost to King Green on four days’ notice, but that loss has aged well since Green is one of the slickest counter strikers in the division.
Gibson is the better striker and has a wrestling background of his own. I’ll side with Hooper’s experience and grappling edge, but this isn’t as lopsided as -278 implies. The method of victory market is the move rather than laying the juice.
- Pick: Chase Hooper by Submission (price TBD)
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UFC Seattle Early Value
The best early value on the UFC Seattle card is Grasso at +150 in the co-main. She already beat Barber, and her losses since then have come against world-class opponents. The line has shifted too far toward Barber based on a win streak against weaker competition.
Belgaroui at -102 is worth a look in the closest fight on the card. In the main event, Adesanya at -135 is a fair price for a former champion stepping down in competition. Those are your best early UFC Seattle bets.
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