- Tampa Bay is -136 on the road behind Vasilevskiy, who owns a 2.29 GAA this season
- Edmonton has lost eight straight home games as an underdog and is 2-8 vs the Eastern Conference
- Check out my Lightning vs Oilers prediction, player props and betting trends for Saturday night
Tampa Bay has scored 12 goals in back-to-back 6-2 wins to open their road trip, with Kucherov, Hagel and Cirelli combining for 20 points over those two games. Now the Lightning (42-21-4) bring that firepower into Rogers Place against an Edmonton team (34-27-9) that just got shut out 4-0 by the Panthers and is 6-8-1 in their last 15.
Puck drop is set for 10 pm ET from Rogers Place in Edmonton. Here are my Lightning vs Oilers prediction, player props and NHL odds for Saturday night.
Lightning vs Oilers Prediction
- Lightning ML (-132 at FanDuel)
Tampa Bay is 15-5 after a win over their last 20 games and 4-1 against the Oilers over their last five meetings. Edmonton, meanwhile, has lost eight straight home games as an underdog and is just 3-7 overall as a dog over their last 10. The Oilers are also 2-8 against the Eastern Conference this season.
The gap between Vasilevskiy and Ingram is the biggest factor here. Vasilevskiy owns a 2.29 GAA and .914 save percentage in 47 starts, while Ingram has a 2.77 GAA and .892 save percentage across 23 appearances. Tampa also ranks third in goals against per game (2.75) compared to Edmonton’s 28th-place mark (3.37).
Lightning vs Oilers Key Stats
Edmonton’s power play is the one area where the Oilers have a massive edge at 31.4%, but Tampa Bay is disciplined enough on the penalty kill (82.1%, 8th) to limit the damage. My Lightning vs Oilers prediction is on the road favorite at -136.
Lightning vs Oilers Player Props
Two shots props I’m targeting for my Lightning vs Oilers player props tonight.
- Anthony Cirelli Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (+110 at FanDuel)
Cirelli has gone over 1.5 shots on goal in five straight games against the Oilers, averaging 3.0 per game in those matchups. The 27-year-old center has been centering Kucherov and Hagel on Tampa’s top line, and that trio has combined for 16 points over the last two games.
Plus money on a 100% hit rate in this specific matchup is an easy play.
- Jake Walman Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-130 at DraftKings)
Walman has cleared 1.5 shots in 13 of 15 home games this season (86.7%), averaging 2.47 per contest at Rogers Place. The Edmonton defenseman has also gone over in five straight games overall.
Rounding out my Lightning vs Oilers player props, this is a reliable volume play at a reasonable price.
Lightning vs Oilers Betting Trends
The over/under trends are screaming for this game. Here are the Lightning vs Oilers betting trends worth watching.
The over is 6-0 in Edmonton’s last six games following a loss of 3-plus goals. It’s also 6-0 in Tampa Bay’s last six Saturday games and 5-0-1 in Lightning games following a win. On the Oilers’ side, the over is 5-0 in their last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage above .600, and 4-0-1 in their last five Saturday games.
The home team is 22-5 in the last 27 meetings between these clubs, but Tampa has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head. Edmonton is 3-9 in the last 12 meetings at Rogers Place. The Lightning are also 74-27 in their last 101 games against Pacific Division opponents and 11-4 in their last 15 road games against teams with a winning home record.
The total of 6.5 feels right given both teams’ offensive firepower, and the over trends in this spot are as strong as you’ll find anywhere on the board Saturday night.
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