Predictions, Best Bets & How to Watch USC vs South Carolina

• #1 South Carolina is a 22.5-point favorite over #9 USC in second-round action at the NCAAW Tournament
• The Gamecocks are fresh off a 103-34 1st Round victory, their most lopsided March Madness win ever
• See my NCAAW Tournament predictions, best bets and how to watch USC vs South Carolina, below

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The 2nd Round at the Women’s NCAA Tournament continues tonight, with #1 South Carolina taking on #9 USC in Regional 4 play. The Gamecocks are fresh off the program’s largest ever March Madness victory on Saturday, and online sportsbooks expect another lopsided win against the Trojans. They’ve pegged South Carolina as 22.5-point favorites, which shockingly isn’t even the biggest spread on tonight’s odds board.

The combination of the Gamecocks size and the absence of USC star JuJu Watkins is enough ammo for me to lay the points as my favorite USC vs South Carolina prediction. Keep reading for the rest of my best bets, plus the latest odds for this matchup, and how to watch the 2nd round action.

How to Watch USC vs South Carolina

Tonight’s game is set to tip at 8pm ET from the Colonial Life Arena, in Columbia, SC. ESPN will handle the broadcast duties nationwide, with the winner advancing to meet #4 Oklahoma in the Sweet Sixteen.

USC vs South Carolina Predictions and Best Bets

• South Carolina -22.5 (-113 at Kalshi)
• Over 133.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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I have no doubt that South Carolina -22.5 will be an extremely chalky pick, but it’s hard to make the case against them right now. They looked unstoppable in their 103-34 Round 1 destruction of Southern, and the Trojans are going to run into similar problems as the Jaguars.

The Gamecocks outrebounded their 1st Round opponent 57-33, grabbing a ridiculous 18 offensive boards. That allowed them the opportunity to build margin through second chance opportunities and easy looks near the bucket, leading to 62 points in the paint. South Carolina shot a tidy 55% from the field, led by Joyce Edwards 27′ points, and got 14+ points from four other players.

#Gamecock WBB matched a league record with five All-SEC Selections:

Raven Johnson named SEC Defensive Player of the Year

Joyce Edwards is a All-SEC first team selection

R. Johnson, Tessa Johnson, Ta’Niya Latson & Madina Okot were named All-SEC second team selections 🏀…

— Chaz R Frazier (@Chazf_tv) March 3, 2026

The scary thing is the Gamecocks left a lot of points out there, shooting just 29% from 3 and 62% from the charity stripe, suggesting they haven’t even reached their offensive ceiling yet. They hit the 100 point mark for the second consecutive year at the NCAA Tournament, after accomplishing the feat eight times during the regular season.

South Carolina enters with the nation’s third best offensive rating, while ranking sixth in total rebounding. They out rebounded USC 56-32 in a regular season matchup back in November, cruising to a 17 point win after a sluggish start. There will be no slow start tonight under the national spotlight, as the discrepancy between these two teams is massive.

USC vs South Carolina Stats

Stat	USC	S. Car.
Record	18-13	32-3
Strength of Schedule	20.68	18.44
Net Rating	37.06	62.57
Offensive Rating	107.44	126.68
Defensive Rating	70.38	64.12

Of the 32 teams remaining, the Trojans rank 30th per ESPN’s experts. They needed two controversial calls to go their way in the opening round overtime victory over Clemson, and they’ll be without Watkins, the reigning player of the year.

USC closed out the season on a four-game losing streak, surrendering an average of 80+ points in those defeats. They lost the rebounding battle and were careless with the basketball against the Tigers, while yielding a 38% field goal percentage from beyond the arc. Freshman Jazzy Davison is the heart and soul of the USC offense, but turnovers have plagued the guard all season, and were an issue again on Saturday. She coughed up the ball six times to Clemson, marking the third time she’s had at least 6 giveaways in the last month and a half.

As for her scoring outlook versus the Gamecocks, volume will be there but an efficient performance is not likely. Only UConn and Texas have a better defensive rating than South Carolina, while the Gamecocks hold enemy shooters to a .420 true shooting percentage, the second lowest mark in the nation.

Despite the low offensive ceiling for USC tonight, I still think this game can exceed the total. South Carolina has proven in can nearly reach this number on its own, while both teams play at a much faster pace than the national average. That will lead to lots of transition points and extra possessions, which will help cash our wager.

USC vs South Carolina Odds

Bet Type	USC	South Carolina
Moneyline	+3000	-4900
Runline	+22.5 (-108)	-22.5 (-113)
Total	O 133.5 (-110)	U 133.5 (-110)

If you’re looking to tail my South Carolina -22.5 wager make sure to visit Kalshi. The prediction market is trading that line at the equivalent of -113 odds in traditional sports betting terms, while most commercial online sportsbooks have moved the spread to -23.5.

As for the total, DraftKings currently has the lowest number in market at 133.5, which is a line that both of these team’s opening round contests exceeded.

Odds as of March 23 at DraftKings and Kalshi. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive DraftKings promo code to bet on the Women’s NCAA Tournament.

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