- Tennessee State is a 5.5-point favorite over Morehead State in Saturday’s OVC Championship
- The Tigers are seeking their first NCAA Tournament bid since 1994
- See my Tennessee State vs Morehead State predictions, picks and odds for the March 7 matchup, below
The Ohio Valley Conference title and an automatic NCAA Tournament bid are on the line Saturday night as Tennessee State (22-9, 15-5 OVC) faces Morehead State (20-12, 15-5 OVC) in the OVC Championship.
Online sportsbooks have installed the Tigers as 5.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds. Tennessee State hasn’t punched a ticket to the Big Dance since 1994, while Morehead State has won three OVC Tournament titles since 2020.
The action tips off at 9 pm ET from Ford Center in Evansville, with ESPN2 providing the broadcast coverage.
Here are my Tennessee State vs Morehead State predictions, picks and odds.
Tennessee State vs Morehead State Predictions and Picks
ATS Pick: Tennessee State -5.5 (-108 at Caesars)
I’m laying the points with the Tigers in the OVC title game. Tennessee State has been the best team in this conference all season, winning a program-record 15 league games and earning the No. 1 seed for the first time in 31 years.
The Tigers split the regular season series with Morehead State, winning 105-100 in overtime in Nashville before dropping a 94-86 decision in Morehead. But this is a neutral site, and Tennessee State’s defense has been suffocating in tournament play, allowing just 55 points in their semifinal win over UT Martin.
OVC Player of the Year Aaron Nkrumah is the best player on the floor. He’s averaging 17.6 points per game and dropped 30 in the first meeting against the Eagles. Travis Harper II adds another elite scoring threat, shooting 41% from three in conference play.
Morehead State rides an eight-game winning streak, but seven of those wins came by single digits. The Eagles have survived by the skin of their teeth, including a 64-63 escape against Southern Indiana. That luck runs out against Tennessee State’s length and athleticism.
Key Statistical Metrics: Tennessee State vs Morehead State
First-year head coach Nolan Smith has transformed this program. The former Duke star earned OVC Co-Coach of the Year after guiding the Tigers to their first regular season title since 1994-95. His switchable defense, anchored by Nkrumah and Antoine Lorick III, forces 14.2 turnovers per game.
Morehead State’s defense ranks 316th nationally per KenPom. George Marshall leads the Eagles with 13.6 points per game, but he shot just 3-for-14 in the semifinal. Tennessee State has the firepower to pull away late.
Tennessee State vs Morehead State Best Bets
Game-Total Pick: Under 144.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
This total has crashed from 152.5 down to 144.5, and I’m riding the sharp money. Tournament finals typically feature tighter whistles and slower tempos as teams adjust to the magnitude of the moment.
Tennessee State’s defense was lights out in the semis, holding UT Martin to 55 points. The Tigers rank among the best in the OVC at forcing turnovers, and that pressure will speed up Morehead State’s offense into bad shots.
The under has hit in 10 of Tennessee State’s last 14 games. Four of the Tigers’ last four games have gone under, and the trend continues in this defensive grind.
Best Bet: Tennessee State Moneyline (-210 at Fanatics)
The Tigers are seeking their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1994, and everything lines up for them to punch that ticket. They own a +6.6 scoring margin compared to Morehead State’s +1.3.
Tennessee State boasts the OVC’s leading scorer in Nkrumah and its third-leading scorer in Harper. Dante Harris controls tempo with 4.6 assists per game, while Lorick III provides rim protection with 1.4 blocks per contest.
The juice is steep, but this is the better team on a neutral floor. Tennessee State wins this one outright.
Tennessee State vs Morehead State Odds
Odds as of March 7 at Caesars. New customers can claim the Caesars Sportsbook promo code and get a bonus to bet on college basketball.
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