- The Inoue vs Nakatani odds favor “The Monster” to defend his undisputed super bantamweight title on Saturday, May 2
- Both fighters enter the ring 32-0 in front of a sold-out crowd at the Tokyo Dome
- See below for my early Inoue vs Nakatani prediction, odds, date details and undercard
One of the biggest fights in Japanese boxing history goes down this Saturday at the Tokyo Dome, where Naoya Inoue (32-0) defends his undisputed super bantamweight crown against Junto Nakatani (32-0).
Both men are top-10 pound-for-pound fighters, but online sportsbooks have made Inoue a sizeable -450 favorite to keep his belts. I expect “The Monster” to find the finish in the second half.
The card streams worldwide on DAZN, with main event ring walks projected after the undercard. We have all the details and our Inoue vs Nakatani prediction below.
Jump to: Prediction | Odds | Props | Tale of the Tape | Undercard | Date & How to Watch
Inoue vs Nakatani Prediction
- Naoya Inoue to win by KO/TKO or DQ (+100 at BetMGM)
Inoue is the rightful favorite. He’s defending the undisputed 122-pound title for the seventh time and has a 25-0 record in true world title fights. Nakatani has only one fight at this weight, and it was harder than expected.
That December bout against Sebastian Hernandez exposed something. Nakatani is brilliant at distance, but Hernandez’s pressure dragged him into deep water and he couldn’t hurt his man.
Nakatani also doesn’t fight behind a real guard. He relies on reflexes and counters, which has worked at lower weights against fighters who can’t punish his mistakes. Inoue can punish them, and his body work might be the most underrated part of his game.
TJ Doheny, Stephen Fulton and Alan Picasso all ended up folded around the ribs against him. Nakatani’s weakest area is the inside game, which is where Inoue does his best work.
I’m not dismissing Nakatani. He’s three inches taller, has a one-inch reach edge, is five years younger and fights southpaw, which has historically given Inoue trouble. The straight left to the body, the same shot that knocked out Vincent Astrolabio, is a real threat.
If Nakatani can keep this fight at long range, he should win some rounds. I just don’t think he can keep it there for 12. Inoue is the best mid-fight adjuster at this level since prime Terence Crawford.
Nakatani has never been knocked down as a pro, so we don’t know how he’d react to adversity. I expect a competitive first half before Inoue starts to figure things out. Somewhere between the eighth and eleventh round, he should find the finish.
Inoue vs Nakatani Odds
Odds at BetMGM. Get the BetMGM bonus code to use on the Inoue vs Nakatani fight.
Inoue is currently a -450 moneyline favorite at BetMGM, giving him an 81.8% implied probability of winning. Nakatani comes back at +300 (25%), with a draw priced at +1600 (5.9%).
The method of victory market is more interesting. Inoue by KO/TKO is priced at +100 and his decision win is +175, meaning the books expect a stoppage despite Inoue winning his last two on the cards.
SPORTSBOOK
Inoue vs Nakatani Props
- Naoya Inoue to win in Rounds 7-9 (+333 at BetMGM)
- Naoya Inoue by Unanimous Decision (+250 at BetMGM)
Rounds 7-9 is where I’d expect this fight to swing. Nakatani should frustrate Inoue early with his length, and then Inoue should figure out the timing and start working downstairs. +333 is solid value if you believe in a late stoppage.
If you’d rather hedge against Nakatani actually surviving the championship rounds, Inoue by unanimous decision at +250 is worth a look. He’s gone the distance in three of his last four, and Nakatani is durable enough to potentially hear the final bell.
Inoue vs Nakatani Tale of the Tape
This is a rare fight where two top-10 pound-for-pound fighters meet at their physical peaks. Inoue is ranked #2 by The Ring and Nakatani is #6. If the challenger pulls the upset, he’ll likely jump to the top of the rankings.
Naoya Inoue vs Junto Nakatani
Inoue is a four-division world champion and one of just three men to hold undisputed status in two weight classes during the four-belt era, joining Terence Crawford and Oleksandr Usyk. This is his seventh defense at 122.
Nakatani is a three-division champion who vacated his bantamweight titles to chase this fight. He moved up in December and beat Sebastian Hernandez by unanimous decision, but it was a much tougher night than expected.
Inoue vs Nakatani Undercard
The co-feature has its own pound-for-pound stakes. Naoya’s younger brother Takuma Inoue defends his WBC bantamweight title against four-division champion Kazuto Ioka, who’s chasing a fifth-division title that no Japanese fighter has accomplished.
- Naoya Inoue (c) vs Junto Nakatani – Undisputed super bantamweight title
- Takuma Inoue (c) vs Kazuto Ioka – WBC bantamweight title
- Toshiki Shimomachi vs Reiya Abe – Featherweight
- Sora Tanaka vs Jin Sasaki – Welterweight
- Kosuke Tomioka vs Shogo Tanaka – Flyweight
- Deok No Yun vs Yuito Moriwaki – Super middleweight
- Yoshiki Takei vs Dekang Wang – Super bantamweight
Inoue vs Nakatani Date & How to Watch
The Inoue vs Nakatani fight date is Saturday, May 2, with the card beginning at 2 am ET (11 pm PT Friday) on DAZN. Main event ring walks are projected after the undercard, with most outlets pegging the timing around 8 am ET.
DAZN is included with a standard subscription in the US and most international markets, so this isn’t a separate pay-per-view. The card is also being shown in over 100 cinemas across Japan.
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