- Netflix MMA goes down Saturday, May 16th from the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles
- Ronda Rousey faces Gina Carano in the main event, with Francis Ngannou and Nate Diaz also on the card
- Check out the full Netflix fight card, odds and betting lines for May 16 below
Netflix is going all-in on live MMA this Saturday. Jake Paul and Nakisa Bidarian’s MVP promotion runs its first card from the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, and the lineup is stacked with names UFC fans know well. Ronda Rousey returns to fight Gina Carano in a matchup decades in the making.
The prelims start at 6 pm ET, with the main card on Netflix at 9 pm ET. The Rousey vs Carano main event walk should land around 11:35 pm ET, depending on how the earlier fights play out.
Here’s the full Netflix fight card time breakdown, odds and my picks.
Netflix Fight Card Odds – Main Card
Rousey is a massive -700 favorite over Carano, an implied probability of 87.5%. Ngannou is the biggest chalk on the entire card at -2500 against Philipe Lins, which works out to a 96.2% implied chance. The closest fight on the main card is Diaz vs Perry, where Perry sits at -190 and Diaz comes back at +155.
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Odds as of May 16th at BetMGM. Grab a BetMGM promo code for Netflix MMA or browse UFC betting apps for more options.
Netflix Fight Card Odds – Prelims
David Mgoyan is the heaviest prelim favorite at -800 over Albert Morales. The prelim card features a late change after Muhammad Mokaev was pulled due to visa issues, with Phumi Nkuta stepping in to face former ONE champ Adriano Moraes. Jake Paul’s training partner Chris Avila opens the night as a +240 underdog against Brandon Jenkins.
Odds as of May 16th at BetMGM. Browse the best UFC betting apps for Netflix MMA on Saturday.
Netflix Fight Card Predictions
Rousey vs Carano Prediction
Both women are coming off long layoffs, but the nature of the time away is completely different. Carano hasn’t fought since 2009, while Rousey last competed in 2016 and spent years training as a full-time pro wrestler after that. Carano’s grappling defense was the hole that ended her career, and Rousey’s entire game is judo and submissions.
I think Rousey gets her to the mat and finishes this quickly. My favorite play is under 1.5 rounds. For the full breakdown and prop bets, check out our Carano vs Rousey predictions.
- Rousey vs Carano Pick: Rousey to Win in Round 1 (-130 at BetMGM)
Ngannou vs Lins Prediction
This is the most lopsided fight on the Netflix fight card. Ngannou returns to MMA for the first time since October 2024 against Philipe Lins, who hasn’t competed in over two years and is actually an undersized heavyweight coming up from 205 pounds.
Ngannou has knocked out his last 10 opponents. The moneyline is unplayable at -2500, so the value is in the method props. Read our full Ngannou vs Lins prediction for the deeper dive.
- Ngannou vs Lins Pick: Ngannou by KO/TKO/DQ (-900 at BetMGM)
Diaz vs Perry Prediction
This is the best betting matchup on the Netflix card. Perry is a -190 favorite, with oddsmakers leaning on his age and recent activity through bare-knuckle boxing. But this is an MMA fight, and Diaz is far more accomplished in this sport.
It’s also five rounds, and Diaz thrives in deep water where Perry tends to fade. Our MMA expert believes Diaz drowns him late and sets up a submission. Our full Diaz vs Perry prediction has more.
- Diaz vs Perry Pick: Diaz by Submission (+425 at BetMGM)
Parnasse vs Cross Prediction
Salahdine Parnasse might be the most underrated fighter on the whole card. The Frenchman is a two-division KSW champion at 22-2 with 14 finishes and is riding a four-fight knockout streak. This is his first fight outside of KSW in nearly a decade.
Kenneth Cross is a legit opponent at 17-4 with his own four-fight win streak, but the jump in competition level is steep. At -1100 the moneyline is dead money, so I’m taking Parnasse to get the finish.
- Parnasse vs Cross Pick: Parnasse by KO/TKO/DQ (+125 at BetMGM)
Dos Santos vs Despaigne Prediction
Junior dos Santos opens the main card as a +240 underdog against Robelis Despaigne, a Cuban Olympic medalist and Karate Combat champion who sits at 5-2 in MMA. JDS weighed in at 245 pounds and is the bigger name, but he hasn’t scored a knockout in over two years and had a long drought before that.
MVP clearly paired two strikers here to produce a finish. Despaigne’s power and explosiveness are the real deal, and I think he gets the stoppage. Dos Santos at +240 is tempting if you believe in the Brazilian legend, but the speed and athleticism gap is tough to ignore.
- Dos Santos vs Despaigne Pick: Despaigne by KO/TKO/DQ (-275 at BetMGM)
Netflix MMA Best Bets
If you want the safest play on the card, Ngannou by KO/TKO/DQ is about as close to a lock as combat sports gets. You won’t get rich on it, but Lins is a bad matchup for the former UFC champ. Parnasse by TKO is another spot where the favorite should deliver, even if the moneyline price kills any real return on its own.
For real value, Diaz vs Perry is the spot. The plus-money submission prop on Diaz at +425 is SBD’s top longshot of the night. Despaigne by KO/TKO is the other live finish play if you trust the Cuban’s power over a JDS who hasn’t cracked anyone in years.
The main event is exactly what it looks like. Rousey shouldn’t have much trouble with a 44-year-old Carano who hasn’t fought in 17 years. The question is how long it lasts, and I’m betting it won’t see the end of Round 1.
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