- The Thunder and Lakers continue their 2nd Round series with Game 4 tonight
- I’m betting Rui Hachimura to drain over 2.5 three-pointers, as he averages 4 made threes per game in this series
- Get my favorite player props and picks for OKC Thunder vs LA Lakers Game 4, below
The Thunder can complete the sweep of the Lakers tonight in Game 4 of their 2nd Round series. Online sportsbooks like their chances, pegging OKC as major favorites in the NBA odds. Personally, I’m not taking a stand on a side or total in this matchup, choosing to bet the player props market instead.
Names like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and LeBron James will surely headline the props wagers tonight, and while I do have a bet to make on SGA, I’ll be digging deep into the LA roster to uncover a hidden gem.
Keep reading for my favorite player props and picks for OKC Thunder vs LA Lakers Game 4, below.
Player Prop Odds for OKC Thunder vs LA Lakers Game 4
SPORTSBOOK
Looking at the NBA starting lineups, where Luka Doncic and Jalen Williams will both sit again for their respective teams. That means usage rates and volume should project similarly to the rest of the series, which is why I’m fading Gilgeous-Alexander in the points department.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s points total opened at 29.5 on DraftKings but was quickly bet down to 28.5. This downward adjustment tells me bettors anticipate the Lakers will key in heavily on defending the perimeter, potentially forcing the ball out of his hands.
If there is a flaw for the NBA Championship odds favorite Thunder, it is their perimeter defense. They allow opponents to shoot 36.0% from deep on 34.1 attempts per game. The Lakers will have plenty of opportunities to capitalize on this defensive hole, with Rui Hachimura being my favorite LA player to target from beyond the arc.
Player Prop Picks for OKC Thunder vs LA Lakers Game 4
- Rui Hachimura Over 2.5 Made Threes (+125 at Bet365)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 28.5 Points (-110 at DraftKings)
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I’m betting Hachimura at plus-money to bury at least three triples. The Lakers forward has been an absolute sniper during this matchup. Through three games, he has connected on 12 three-pointers on 21 attempts, averaging 4 made threes per game
This postseason production is a massive leap from his regular-season baseline, where he averaged just 1.7 made threes per home game. Over his last five playoff games, Hachimura is sinking 3.8 deep balls per contest.
Hachimura has gone over 2.5 made threes in 3 of his 4 home playoff games this season, giving this situational trend a massive 75% hit rate. Furthermore, the Thunder consistently bleed perimeter production on the road. Oklahoma City allows opponents 13.7 made threes per away playoff game, setting the stage for Hachimura to be a value in our NBA player prop analyzer.
Fading an MVP is never comfortable, but the defensive dynamics strongly point me toward the under on Gilgeous-Alexander’s points prop. Despite averaging a staggering 31.0 road points during the regular season, he has found virtually no breathing room against Los Angeles.
In the three games of this series, he has been held to just 63 total points, resulting in an average of 21 points per game. The Lakers’ defensive scheme has successfully swarmed him, yielding just 106.2 opponent points per game overall in the postseason.
Gilgeous-Alexander is a perfect 3-0 to the under versus this line against LA, and is pacing a full 7.5 points below the inflated number. With Williams sidelined, the Lakers can commit entirely to trapping Gilgeous-Alexander, making this under a premium value play.
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