USA vs Canada Prediction, Props, Odds & Rosters for 2026 IIHF World Championship Quarterfinal (May 28)
- Undefeated Canada is a -425 moneyline favorite in Thursday’s USA vs Canada quarterfinal at the 2026 IIHF World Championship
- The U.S. went 4-3 in group play and barely advanced, while Canada rolled to a 7-0 record with a +20 goal differential
- See my USA vs Canada prediction, props, odds and rosters for Thursday’s quarterfinal below
Three months after the U.S. stunned Canada for Olympic gold in Milan, the rivalry picks back up at the World Championship. It’s a quarterfinal this time, not a gold medal game, and the rosters are almost entirely different. But Canada will have that February loss in the back of their minds Thursday morning.
Canada went 7-0 in the preliminary round and has been the best team in Switzerland by a wide margin. The Americans scraped into the quarterfinals with a 4-3 record after losses to Switzerland, Finland and Latvia.
Puck drop is 10:20 am ET from BCF Arena, with NHL Network and TSN on the call. Here are my USA vs Canada prediction, props and odds for Thursday’s World Championship quarterfinal.
USA vs Canada Prediction
- Canada -2.5 (+120 at DraftKings)
SPORTSBOOK
I’m taking Canada -2.5 at plus money for my USA vs Canada prediction. The Canadians outscored opponents 33-13 in the prelims, averaging 4.7 goals per game while giving up just 1.9. Six of their seven wins came by at least two goals.
The Americans went 4-3 with a +4 goal differential and needed a win-or-go-home game against Austria just to get here. Their losses came against three of the better teams in the field.
Canada’s scoring depth is on another level. Celebrini leads the team with 11 points (5G, 6A) and a +12 rating through seven games, while Crosby has nine assists. O’Reilly has been one of the best players in the tournament with five goals and seven points.
USA vs Canada Goaltender Stats
Both goalies are posting .930 save percentages, but the context matters. Greaves has beaten Sweden, Slovakia and Czechia, while Cooley’s best wins came against Austria and Great Britain.
The backup situation is even more lopsided. Cam Talbot has a shutout in two starts for Canada, while Joseph Woll has posted a 4.65 GAA and .760 save percentage in three appearances for the U.S.
The one edge the Americans have is their power play, which leads the tournament at 35% (7-for-20). But Canada’s penalty kill has been just as sharp, allowing only two goals on 18 chances. I don’t see the U.S. getting enough power play time to make up for the gap at even strength, and +120 on Canada -2.5 is a price I’m happy to take.
USA vs Canada Props
- Macklin Celebrini Anytime Goal (+120 at DraftKings)
SPORTSBOOK
I’m leading off my USA vs Canada props with Canada’s captain. Celebrini has five goals in seven games and leads all Canadian skaters with 33 shots on goal. He’s averaging 18:32 of ice time per game, more than any other forward on the roster.
He scored twice to rally Canada from a 2-0 deficit against Czechia in the prelim finale, and the Americans allowed three goals per game during group play. Their blueline lacks the difference-makers they had at the Olympics to contain Celebrini for 60 minutes.
- Mark Scheifele Anytime Goal (+190 at DraftKings)
SPORTSBOOK
Scheifele has three goals and two assists through seven games, including a hat trick against Norway that won the game in overtime. He’s put 25 shots on net and has been getting quality looks from Canada’s power play unit.
The U.S. penalty kill sits at 78.5%, and that’s the kind of weakness Scheifele can take advantage of. I like the +190 price to wrap up my USA vs Canada props.
USA vs Canada Rosters
Team Canada Roster
Forwards:
Sidney Crosby – Macklin Celebrini (C) – Mark Scheifele
Gabriel Vilardi – Robert Thomas – Dylan Cozens
Ryan O’Reilly – John Tavares – Connor Brown
Dylan Holloway – Fraser Minten – Emmitt Finnie
Porter Martone – Dawson Mercer – Mat Barzal
Defense:
Morgan Rielly – Evan Bouchard
Darnell Nurse – Sam Dickinson
Denton Mateychuk – Dylan DeMelo
Zach Whitecloud – Parker Wotherspoon
Goaltenders: Jet Greaves, Cam Talbot, Jack Ivankovic
Canada Leading Scorers
Canada has scored 33 goals through seven games, and the production has come from everywhere. Celebrini is second in the entire tournament in scoring, while Crosby leads all forwards with nine helpers. Bouchard has been a workhorse on the blueline, averaging nearly 23 minutes a night with a tournament-best +14 rating.
Team USA Roster
Forwards:
Matthew Tkachuk – Tommy Novak – Matt Coronato
Isaac Howard – James Hagens – Ryan Leonard
Mathieu Olivier – Max Sasson – Paul Cotter
Alex Steeves – Oliver Moore – Danny Nelson
Max Plante – Ryker Lee – Sam Lafferty
Defense:
Justin Faulk – Will Borgen
Mason Lohrei – Connor Clifton
Ryan Lindgren – Ryan Ufko
Wyatt Kaiser – Declan Carlile
Goaltenders: Devin Cooley, Joseph Woll, Drew Commesso
USA Leading Scorers
Tkachuk has been the Americans’ best player since arriving for game four, potting four goals and seven points in just four appearances. He’s the only U.S. player from the Olympic gold medal team in February.
Novak leads the team in scoring with eight points, while Leonard has been firing at will with a team-high 29 shots on goal. The scoring drops off fast after the top three, and that’s a problem against a Canadian team that can roll four lines.
USA vs Canada Odds
Canada’s -425 moneyline carries roughly an 81% implied probability. The U.S. at +330 gives them about a 23% shot, but this American roster doesn’t have the depth to hang with Canada’s lineup for 60 minutes.
The USA vs Canada odds have the puck line at 2.5, and that’s where I’m playing it. Canada -2.5 at +120 is the best value on the board given their +20 goal differential. The total sits at 6 with even juice on both sides, and 77% of moneyline bets have come in on Canada per DraftKings.
SPORTSBOOK
Odds as of May 27 via DraftKings. Check out SBD’s DraftKings promo code to bet on the World Hockey Championship. Canadians can grab a Bet99 promo code.
USA vs Canada World Championship How to Watch
Puck drop for Thursday’s quarterfinal is 10:20 am ET from BCF Arena in Fribourg, Switzerland. The game airs on NHL Network in the U.S. and TSN in Canada, with streaming on Fubo.
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