The July 27, 2026, MLB slate features 12 games and plenty of angles in the MLB home run props market. Before betting the long ball, I always check MLB park factors, and tonight’s slate includes homer-friendly spots like Sutter Health Park, Nationals Park, and Great American Ball Park, along with tougher environments like loanDepot park.
Below, I will break down the best MLB odds and picks for tonight’s home run props, focusing on pitching matchups, ballpark conditions, and the hitters offering the most value.
Home Run Picks Today
Vladimir Guerrero Jr (+560) — Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals
This matchup takes place at Nationals Park, an elite home-run-friendly environment yielding 3.15 home runs per game. Guerrero faces Washington probable starter Andrew Alvarez, who has been incredibly stingy with the long ball, allowing just a 0.34 HR/9 over 53.3 innings. Despite the tough pitching matchup, the extremely favorable ballpark conditions offer immense upside for power hitters.
Pete Alonso (+350) — Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers
Alonso steps into a challenging environment at Comerica Park, a venue that inherently suppresses power with an average of just 2.07 home runs per game. The starting pitching dynamic is relatively balanced in this matchup. Detroit probable starter Keider Montero carries a 0.85 HR/9, while Baltimore starter Kyle Bradish sits at 0.95 HR/9. It will be a test of raw power against a difficult backdrop, making it an intriguing spot for a heavy hitter.
Elly De La Cruz (+304) — Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians
De La Cruz benefits from a highly advantageous pitching matchup tonight. He squares off against Cleveland starter Slade Cecconi, who has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, posting a vulnerable 1.30 HR/9 across 103.7 innings of work. Furthermore, Great American Ball Park is a solid environment for the long ball, averaging a generous 2.84 home runs per game. The combination of a susceptible pitcher and a favorable home venue makes De La Cruz a fantastic power target.
Nick Kurtz (+280) — Boston Red Sox vs Athletics
Sutter Health Park has played as an absolute hitter’s paradise this season, surrendering a massive 3.20 home runs per game. Kurtz matching up against Athletics starter Jack Perkins is a prime target. Perkins lands on the list of the worst home run rates on today’s slate, sporting a 1.58 HR/9 over 62.7 innings. Even if the at-bats come against Boston starter Payton Tolle, the elite ballpark factor alone heavily elevates the ceiling of this prop.
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Yordan Alvarez (+235) — Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels
Alvarez faces a challenging offensive environment tonight at Angel Stadium, which ranks twenty-sixth overall and allows only 1.73 home runs per game. He will be up against Angels starter Walbert Ureña, who has effectively limited opposing power with a 0.52 HR/9 across 87.3 innings. While the venue and the arm on the mound lean heavily toward the pitcher, Alvarez possesses the natural power upside required to overcome pitcher-friendly conditions on any given night.
Kyle Schwarber (+228) — Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins
Schwarber steps into loanDepot park, a venue notorious for suppressing offense with just 1.69 home runs per game. However, he gets a very reasonable pitching matchup against Miami starter Tyler Phillips, who is yielding 1.02 HR/9 over 79.3 innings of work. Finding a matchup against a pitcher giving up over a home run per nine innings provides Schwarber with a solid window to cash in, despite the spacious outfield in Miami.
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