Best Longshot Picks to Win Open Championship at Royal Birkdale

The Open Championship tees off Thursday, July 16th from Royal Birkdale
The betting board is screaming with value between +3600 and +5700
See the best longshot picks to win the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale, below

The best golfers in the world have one last chance to claim a Major this week, as the Open Championship goes down at historic Royal Birkdale. Unlike modern venues that reward bombers, this track demands patience, precision and creativity around the greens. With coastal winds, punishing bunkers and firm fairways, the course often allows experienced links specialists to challenge for golf’s oldest trophy.

That’s what I’m banking on this week with my best longshot picks to win the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. My betting card is made up entirely of international players, who stripe their irons and have plenty of prowess in links golf.

Longshot Odds for Open Championship at Royal Birkdale

Bet	Odds (Sportsbook)
Viktor Hovland to Win	+3604 (Kalshi)
Tyrrell Hatton to Win	+4445 (Kalshi)
Justin Rose to Win	+4662 (Kalshi)
Min Woo Lee to Win	+5700 (DraftKings)

Odds as of July 14. Claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code or Polymarket invite code before trading on the Open Championship.

I’ll start my longshots betting card with Viktor Hovland, who’s trading at the equivalent of +3604 odds over at Kalshi, which is superior to his +3400 price tag at traditional sportsbooks. His Ryder Cup teammates Tyrrell Hatton and Justin Rose, trading at +4445 and +4662 respectively at Kalshi are next on my list, followed by Aussie Min Woo Lee at +5700 over at DraftKings.

Best Longshot Picks to Win Open Championship at Royal Birkdale

Viktor Hovland +3604 (Kalshi)
Tyrrell Hatton +4445 (Kalshi)
Justin Rose +4662 (Kalshi)
Min Woo Lee +5700 (DraftKings)

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Kalshi

Viktor Hovland

Tyrrell Hatton

Justin Rose

Predict

Hovland’s game has been trending in the right direction for months, and it culminated a few weeks ago with a signature win. Over the past eight weeks he’s gained strokes ball striking at the highest rate in the field, and is routinely one of the most accurate drives on the planet. When his putter is co-operating he can compete anywhere, and it just so happens he’s gained strokes on the greens in four of five career Open Championship starts.

If there’s a red flag with Vik, it’s usually his short game, but he’s made great strides around the greens especially in short-grass collection areas, like they feature at Royal Birkdale.

Few players embrace links golf quite like Hatton. He owns multiple DP World Tour victories on links-style layouts and has repeatedly proven he can thrive when conditions become difficult. His exceptional iron play and confident putting make him a dangerous contender at any Open venue. If the weather turns windy, as it typically does at Open Championships, Hatton’s low ball flight could become a major advantage.

Justin Rose Best Open Championship Finishes

Tournament	Result
Royal Troon 2024	T2
Carnoustie 2018	T2
Royal Birkdale 1998	4th

Rose has finished runner-up twice at the Open Championship, and could punctuate his 46th birthday this week by winning a Major on English soil.

His history at Royal Birkdale dates back to his fourth-place finish as as an amateur in 1998, and he arrives with decades of links experience. Few players manage difficult weather and Major Championship pressure better than Rose, and he’s been a star at Majors all year. He finished 3rd at the Masters, 10th at the PGA Championship and 11th at the US Open.

As for Lee, he may be known for his length off the tee, but he’s developed into one of the game’s most creative shot-makers. His ability to flight his ball and recover from difficult positions gives him tremendous upside if conditions become treacherous. Although he can occasionally be over-aggressive, Royal Birkdale rewards confidence, making Lee a high ceiling sleeper. He enters this week in great form, fresh off a runner-up finish at the Scottish Open, where he demonstrated phenomenal ball striking, and a deft touch around the greens.