- Conor McGregor and Max Holloway run it back at UFC 329 on July 11 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
- Holloway is a -220 favorite in the welterweight rematch after McGregor’s five-year layoff
- See the full list of expert predictions for McGregor vs Holloway 2 below
One of the biggest fights the UFC has booked in years is almost here, and the pros can’t agree on how it ends. Conor McGregor returns at UFC 329 on July 11 to face Max “Blessed” Holloway, his first fight since breaking his leg back in 2021. It’s a five-round welterweight rematch of their 2013 bout, which McGregor won by decision.
Most fighters are lining up behind Holloway, a -220 favorite at BetMGM. The ones taking McGregor keep pointing back to his power.
Here’s what current and former UFC fighters are saying about McGregor vs Holloway 2.
McGregor vs Holloway 2 Expert Predictions
The clear majority side with Holloway, and the betting markets agree. Polymarket and Kalshi both have Blessed around 67-68% to win. FightMatrix is right there too at 65% Holloway.
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Experts Picking Holloway
The fighters taking Holloway all say pretty much the same thing. You can’t get around five years away from the cage.
Daniel Cormier put it simply. “You don’t get better at something by not doing it,” DC said. He gave McGregor credit for being motivated, but stopped short of a firm pick and clearly leans Max.
Jorge Masvidal was more colorful. Speaking just days out from the fight, Gamebred compared it to “a Ferrari vs. a Honda Civic, but the Ferrari has a quarter tank of gas.” He thinks McGregor might look sharp for a minute or two before the gas tank runs dry.
Alexander Volkanovski knows Holloway better than anyone. He’s fought him three times for 75 total minutes. Volk is taking Max to win by finish, but he did warn him not to just walk forward throwing volume like the old days. He wants Max to fight smarter at welterweight.
Belal Muhammad gave McGregor more respect than most. The former welterweight champ laid out a plan for Holloway to survive the first few minutes, clinch if he needs to, then take over. “Once it gets to the second round, Holloway is the king of cardio,” Muhammad said.
Jose Aldo lands on Holloway, too. The Hall of Famer points to Max staying active and in rhythm while McGregor’s timing is in question, though he won’t rule out a Conor knockout.
Chris Weidman was surprised the line wasn’t wider, figuring it should be more like 6-1. He sees just one path for Conor: a knockout in the first or second round, or nothing at all.
Nate Diaz keeps it simple and sides with Holloway, betting that his pace and pressure will prove too much for a returning McGregor. Dustin Poirier leans the same way, but he’s quick to say Conor’s power still makes him live.
Experts Picking McGregor
Fewer fighters are backing Conor. The ones who do all point to the same weapon: that left hand stays dangerous no matter how long he’s been gone.
Paddy Pimblett has the sharpest point, and he’s a training partner of Conor’s fighting on this same card. “It’s at welterweight, I see Conor knocking Max out,” Paddy said. His logic is simple. Charles Oliveira already made Holloway look small at lightweight, so a bigger McGregor at 170 is a tough matchup. Max has never fought at welterweight.
Tom Aspinall made the boldest call of anyone. The current heavyweight champ likes McGregor by first-round knockout. “Power doesn’t leave. He just needs one shot, and it can be over,” Aspinall said.
Ilia Topuria made his McGregor pick while he was still the lightweight champ. He sees a striking fight in which the two are closer than the odds suggest. Things changed for Topuria after Justin Gaethje knocked him out at UFC Freedom 250, but he’d still love a McGregor win to line up a future superfight.
Ian Machado Garry has actually sparred with McGregor during this camp, so he has info nobody else does. He called Holloway an Uzi and McGregor a shotgun. “He doesn’t have that one-punch power, that shotgun. That’s what Conor has,” Garry said. Max brings the steady volume, but one clean shot from Conor ends it.
McGregor vs Holloway 2 Prediction Takeaway
The pros have made their read pretty clear. Holloway’s pace and volume are a lot to handle, and McGregor has serious cardio questions after five years away from the cage.
But his backers aren’t folding. They keep coming back to one thing: that left hand. FightMatrix gives Conor a 30% chance to win by KO or TKO. If it lands early, the cardio narrative never gets off the ground. That’s why nobody is fully counting out “The Notorious.”
UFC 329 goes down Saturday, July 11 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
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