- The Connecticut Sun are 1.5-point favorites over the Portland Fire in WNBA action today
- The Sun have the league’s lowest Net Rating, and are tied for the worst Offensive Rating
- See my favorite Fire vs Sun expert picks, predictions and props, below
The WNBA slate is starting extra early on Tuesday, as the Connecticut Sun host the expansion Portland Fire at 11 am ET. The early tip-off is part of the Sun’s annual “Camp Day” designed to attract local summer camps and school field trips.
Online sportsbooks are expecting the campers to go home happy, pegging Connecticut as 1.5-point favorites. I completely disagree with the line however, and will happy take the points with the underdog.
Keep reading to find out why, plus see the rest of my Fire vs Sun expert picks, predictions and props, below.
Fire vs Sun Odds
Odds as of July 14. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on WNBA today.
Looking at the Fire vs Sun odds, Connecticut is laying -115 on the moneyline, with Portland coming back at -105 to score the upset. Total-wise, the over/under sits at 167.5, a number that feels a bit rich given the Sun’s lack of offensive efficiency.
Entering play this morning, these squads own the two lowest Net Ratings in the WNBA, with Connecticut boasting the longest WNBA championship odds.
Fire vs Sun Expert Picks and Predictions
- Portland Fire +1.5 (-118 at Bet365)
SPORTSBOOK
The Sun are also tied for the lowest Offensive Rating in the league, and rank bottom-five in Defensive Rating. They’ve lost back-to-back games coming in, and 10 of their last 13 overall, and don’t boast a single scorer ranked inside the top-30 in the WNBA.
To make matters worse, Connecticut is riddled with injuries. They’re already without second leading scorer Aneesah Morrow, and leading playmaker Saniya Rivers, any may be without veteran center Brittney Griner as well. The lanky veteran is currently iffy with a quadriceps issue that has forced her out of the last two contests.
If Griner winds up sitting again, that leaves Connecticut with just one woman who averages in double-figures (Leila Lacan). Yes, the Portland defense is by far their biggest issue, ranking last in defensive rating, but even they should be able to contain a Sun roster void of any serious talent.
Also helping the expansion Fire is improved efficientcy from beyond the arc. Portland sits sixth in the WNBA in three-point field goal percentage, and are fresh off splashing 14 triples in a victory over the weekend versus Atlanta. That marked their third win in four games, and it was also the fifth time this year they’ve made at least 14 threes.
Seven players scored in double-figures in that contest, showcasing the scoring depth of the roster. They shot 60% from the field, using their pick-and-roll attack to free up open shooters all over the perimeter.
Portland’s new found three-point prowess will serve them especially well today, as the Sun enter play yielding triples at a 35% clip. The Fire have taken the first two meetings between these two teams this season, and I expect them to make it three in a row versus a struggling, shorthanded Connecticut roster.
Fire vs Sun Props
- Bridget Carleton 3+ Threes (+113 at Caesars)
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Sticking with my three-point theme in the player props market, where I’m betting Fire sharpshooter Bridget Carleton to bury at least three triples at plus-money odds. Carleton has been one of the catalysts of the Portland long distance surge, splashing 20 threes over her last seven starts. She’s cleared this line in back-to-back games, and in three of four overall, and has flashed an incredibly high ceiling from beyond the arc.
Carleton has hit at least four threes five times this season, with performances of six and seven threes over the last month. With that in mind, I’ll take her to reach at least 3 threes versus the porous Sun defense for a full unit, while also mixing in some partial unit bets on her three-point ladder props (4+ at +278, 5+ at +620 and 6+ at +1300).
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