- Mexico have not conceded a goal all tournament and have never lost to England on home soil.
- England are unbeaten and loaded with talent, but the Azteca altitude and a right-back crisis complicate things.
- See my Mexico vs England predictions and betting lines, plus the latest injury news, below.
Jump to: PREDICTIONS || BETTING LINES || INJURY NEWS || H2H
The World Cup Round of 16 rolls on Sunday, July 5 at 8:00 p.m. ET, when co-hosts Mexico host England at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. Mexico have won all four of their games without conceding a goal, and they ended a 40-year knockout drought by beating Ecuador 2-0. England reached this round the hard way, edging DR Congo 2-1 behind a Harry Kane brace.
England, under Thomas Tuchel, arrive with more individual talent and a return to the Azteca for the first time since Diego Maradona’s 1986 “Hand of God” game. Mexico counter with momentum, a hostile crowd, and altitude of more than 7,300 feet that England cannot fully adjust to in a few days. The market is split: England are the slight favorite to win in regulation, but the tie to advance is a coin flip.
Injuries only muddy England’s plan, with a right-back crisis and Declan Rice managing a hamstring problem. Here are my predictions, betting lines, and the latest injury news.
Mexico vs England Predictions
My Mexico vs England predictions lean toward a tight, low-scoring night at the Azteca.
Total-Goals Pick: Under 2.5 (-156 at Kalshi)
Mexico have not conceded a goal all tournament, stacking four straight clean sheets on their way to the knockouts. England control the ball but grind their scoring out slowly, and the thin Azteca air saps legs late. The over 2.5 sits at just 40% on Kalshi, so I am happy taking the under at -156.
Moneyline Pick: Draw (+223 at Kalshi)
England have never beaten Mexico on Mexican soil, losing in 1959 and 1985 and drawing in 1969. Add the altitude and a patched-up back line, and a deadlock looks live. Kalshi splits the three-way market almost evenly, which makes the draw at +223 the best value on the board.
Goalscorer Pick: Raul Jimenez at Score Bet
If Mexico break through, Raul Jimenez is the target man to finish it. England will push forward and leave space to counter, and Jimenez thrives running into those gaps. He is my anytime goalscorer pick, so grab the theScore Bet promo code and check his price at Score Bet.
Mexico vs England Betting Lines
The headline market is the coin flip to advance. Kalshi has England at -104 and Mexico at +100 to reach the quarterfinals, a near-even split with more than $58 million in volume. England are the slight favorite to win in regulation, but the altitude and the threat of extra time even things out over the full tie.
In regulation, Kalshi prices England at +163, Mexico at +213, and the draw at +223. The total leans low, with the over 2.5 at just 40%, which pushes the under to -156. Claim the Kalshi sign-up bonus to trade these markets.
A $20 bet on Mexico to advance returns $40, while the same stake on England to go through pays about $39.20. That is as close to even money as a knockout tie gets.
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Mexico vs England Injury News
The Mexico vs England injury news is all about England’s back line. Right-back Djed Spence picked up a training injury and is expected to miss the game, joining Tino Livramento, who is out of the World Cup entirely. Reece James is working back from a hamstring problem and may only make the bench, while Jarell Quansah has returned to full training and could deputize.
That leaves Tuchel to improvise, with Declan Rice, Ezri Konsa, or a back-three pushing Bukayo Saka to wing-back all in play at right-back. Rice himself is set to feature after managing neural pain in his hamstring, though how long he lasts is unclear. Mexico, by contrast, report no injury concerns and name a fully fit squad under Javier Aguirre.
Mexico vs England Team Stats & Recent Form
England dominate the ball, sitting second in possession at 65% and piling up shots and corners. They spend long spells camped in the attacking third, drawing 7.25 corners a game.
Mexico do the opposite and thrive on it. They rank near the bottom in possession and corners, but they have not conceded a goal and punish teams in transition. That clash of styles is a big reason I lean under.
Mexico vs England Head-to-Head
England lead the all-time series 6-1-2 with a lopsided 23-4 goal edge, but the location split is what matters here. England have never won on Mexican soil, losing in 1959 and 1985 and drawing in 1969. The only prior World Cup meeting was a 2-0 England win at Wembley in 1966, and the sides have not met since a 3-1 England friendly in 2010. That away record backs my read on a tight game in Mexico City.
For more of the weekend’s action, compare the best World Cup betting apps before kickoff.
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