- UFC Abu Dhabi brings a stacked main card led by Ankalaev vs. Guskov at light heavyweight.
- Ankalaev is a heavy -600 favorite at BetMGM with Guskov sitting at +425.
- See my expert UFC Fight Night predictions, picks and latest odds below.
The octagon heads to Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi for a pivotal UFC Fight Night card on July 25. The main event carries massive light heavyweight title implications as contenders look to secure their spot at the top of the division. The prelims kick off at 9:00 AM ET, with the main card following at 12:00 PM ET on Paramount+.
Former champion and top-ranked Magomed Ankalaev looks to secure another championship opportunity with a win against surging underdog Bogdan Guskov. The betting market is already taking a firm stance on this clash.
I am breaking down the physical metrics and situational trends to find the best betting value on the board.
Latest UFC Fight Night Main Card Odds
Odds as of fight week at BetMGM. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.
The lines at BetMGM show massive respect for the favorites in Abu Dhabi. Islam Dulatov at -1100 and Ankalaev at -600 are the two heaviest chalk plays, which pushes the value into the method and totals markets rather than laying the moneyline. Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov is the only true pick’em on the main card.
UFC Fight Night Main Card Predictions
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov Prediction and Pick
Ankalaev enters at 21-2-1 with one no contest, and the physical gap is small. He is 6-foot-3 with a 75-inch reach, while Guskov is 18-3-1, 6-foot-3 and owns a slight reach edge at 76 inches. The biggest factor is not so much in the physical numbers, but rather how aggressive Guskov is early, when he will have the best chance to pull off the upset.
There is no question that Guskov has to hurt Ankalaev before the fight settles if he wants to win. He is dangerous early, aggressive, and carries the kind of power that can change a round fast. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors the more technical Ankalaev, who is 14-1-1 in fights that reach the second round.
Guskov’s cardio was also a massive issue for him in his most recent outing against Jan Blachowicz, who outlanded him 48 to 27 while scoring a knockdown in the third round. A younger Blachowicz would have finished that fight, and if Guskov finds himself in that same situation against Ankalaev, he will be in for a long night.
I expect Ankalaev to weather the first wave, make Guskov miss bigger, then punish the openings as Guskov slows. If this reaches Round 3, I like Ankalaev’s composure and late-finishing edge much more than the moneyline price.
- UFC Fight Night Pick #1: Ankalaev by KO (-140 at Bet365)
Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov Best Bet
Erceg carries a 14-4 record into this one against Temirov’s 19-3 mark. The more important numbers for this matchup are physical. Erceg is 5-foot-8 with a 68-inch reach, while Temirov is much smaller at 5-foot-4 with a 63-inch reach. That is a major length gap at flyweight.
Temirov will be the more dangerous fighter early with his wild striking and explosive boxing. Erceg has gotten off to several slow starts, but he has been historically durable, only losing by finish once in his 18-fight career.
The elephant in the room is Temirov’s recent PED suspension that kept him sidelined for the last 12 months. The Uzbek fighter popped for Trimetazidine, a drug that can enhance cardiovascular endurance. Fighters tend to look worse in their first fight back from similar suspensions, and Temirov has always struggled with his energy management in fights that get out of the first round.
Not only is Erceg durable; he processes reads quickly, and should be the cleaner minute winner if he keeps Temirov at the end of his jab and kicks. I trust Erceg’s striking layers and cardio more over three rounds.
- UFC Fight Night Pick #2: Erceg Moneyline (-105 at Bet365)
Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune Pick
Kuniev enters at 13-3-1 with one no contest, while Fortune is 18-3 with two no contests. The heavyweights share very similar physical measurements on paper. This should be decided more by wrestling and cardio than raw size.
Simply put, this is a very favorable matchup for Kuniev on his home turf. The Russian is coming off back-to-back fights against high-level wrestlers in Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida, against whom he defended 21 of 23 total takedowns attempted. Fortune brings a very similar approach to the table, but with a significantly lower success rate.
All four of Fortune’s losses have come when opponents took away the wrestling and made him fight uncomfortable minutes. If Kuniev can stuff early entries, Fortune’s best path narrows quickly. Without the threat of a takedown, Fortune landed just 18 significant strikes at distance in his 15-minute fight with Marcin Tybura in March.
Despite the favorable matchup, this is not a spot where I expect Kuniev to force a finish. Fortune has never been finished, and Kuniev’s best path is the same shape as the Almeida win: defend takedowns, reset, and bank rounds with cleaner boxing.
- UFC Fight Night Pick #3: Kuniev by Decision (-140 at Bet365)
Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman Prediction
Dulatov comes in at 12-1 and Turman at 18-8. Dulatov is the bigger athlete on paper too, listed at 6-foot-3 with a 75-inch reach. Turman is 6-foot with a 72-inch reach. That three-inch height and reach edge is a problem if Turman cannot get clean grappling connections, which he has struggled to do in the UFC.
Turman is a BJJ black belt, so I respect the submission threat if the fight hits controlled grappling positions. It is his world on the mats. I just do not trust the wrestling to get it there. Turman owns a bleak 20 percent takedown accuracy in the UFC that is somehow even worse than its face value. Taking away his UFC debut — in which Turman completed four of seven takedowns — and he has successfully landed just 14 percent of his takedown attempts in his last eight fights.
Turman has been out since December 2023 and has not won since February 2022, which makes this a brutal comeback spot, and not one where he likely gets his grappling game going.
On the feet, Dulatov has the speed, power, and length to punish Turman before the grappling becomes relevant. While Turman has a clear path to victory, Dulatov will be on him from the jump and Turman lacks the required defense and durability to weather the storm.
- UFC Fight Night Pick #4: Dulatov by KO/TKO and Under 1.5 SGP (-150 at Bet365)
Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki Best Bet
Both fighters enter their respective UFC debuts unbeaten. Zaynukov is 8-0, while Rzepecki is 10-0. They are both listed at 5-foot-10, but Rzepecki has the reach advantage at 73 inches compared to Zaynukov’s 68 inches. That is real, but I still prefer the better technical striker.
Zaynukov is the highest-level standup fighter on this card by a significant margin. His output was on full display in his Dana White’s Contender Series fight, during which he posted an absurd 235 significant strikes, including at least 64 in every round. He got dropped early and recovered right away, which matters because Rzepecki is good enough to test him.
Rzepecki is no pushover. The 24-year-old is a talented striker in his own right, fighting behind a southpaw stance with exquisite timing and cardio. The problem is he will give Zaynukov exactly the fight he wants while making a quick three-month turnaround.
Zaynukov has not been much of a finisher earlier in his UFC career and might struggle to find one in this spot. He does not sit down on most of his punches, instead preferring to pop in and out of range while landing to score points. I like Zaynukov to win minutes, manage danger, and run away on the scorecards.
- UFC Fight Night Pick #5: Zaynukov by Decision (+140 at Bet365)
Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev Prediction
Vagaev and Izagakhmaev are two highly technical fighters who share many similarities. Both favor their grappling and minimize risk at all costs to construct largely effective game plans, even if it is not the most fan-friendly.
Neither fighter forces the issue, but Izagakhmaev is much more content to sit on his back foot and go where his opponent takes him. He is talented enough to still win many of those battles, but that tepid game plan directly led to his loss to Nicolas Dalby in his UFC debut. Izagakhmaev is preparing for just his second MMA fight since 2022 and looked completely out of rhythm in his last outing.
While Vagaev is not much more aggressive, he does look to pressure his opponents with the threat of his wrestling. Everything Vagaev does is to set up his wrestling, and once he establishes control, he favors position much more than hunting ground-and-pound or submissions.
Either fighter could gain the upper hand over the other, but Vagaev typically at least attempts to bring the fight more than Izagakhmaev. This fight is almost guaranteed to reach the final bell with both Russians fighting on the thinnest of margins. In similar situations, judges tend to favor the more active fighter.
- UFC Fight Night Pick #6: Vagaev by Decision (-130 on Bet365)
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