- UFC Abu Dhabi goes down early Saturday morning
- I’m backing Nurullo Aliev to keep his undefeated record in tact
- See my expert UFC Prelims predictions, best bets and value picks for Abu Dhabi, below
The UFC touches down in Abu Dhabi on Saturday for a massive card. The action is headlined by the Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov tilt, but before the bell rings for the Main Card, there’s plenty of money to be made in the prelims. The under card is set to get underway at 9 am ET from the Etihad Arena, with coverage available on Paramount+.
The best value I see on the prelim board comes from Valter Walker against Thomas Petersen, where Walker’s size, reach, and career momentum create a clear betting angle.
Below, I am breaking the UFC Prelims predictions, best bets and value picks for Abu Dhabi, and the reasoning behind each selection.
UFC Prelims Odds for Abu Dhabi
Odds as July 24. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.
UFC Prelims Predictions for Abu Dhabi
UFC Prelims Best Bet: Valter Walker to Win Inside the Distance
- UFC Prelims Value Pick #1: Walker to Win Inside the Distance (-115 at BetMGM)
When evaluating this heavyweight prelim, you do not need head-to-head history to see where the physical advantages lie. Valter “The Clean Monster” Walker is simply a behemoth in the cage. Standing an imposing 199 cm tall with a massive 206 cm reach, he completely dwarfs Thomas “The Train” Petersen.
Beyond the sheer physical disparity, Walker brings a brilliant 15-1 record into the fight. Petersen’s 11-4 mark shows he is capable, but overcoming an 18-centimeter reach deficit against a one-loss titan is a monumental task.
Rather than laying the -200 moneyline, I prefer attacking Walker’s finishing upside. His size and reach should let him control the terms of engagement, punish Petersen’s entries, and create opportunities for a stoppage before the final horn.
UFC Prelims Best Bet: Nurullo Aliev by Decision
- UFC Prelims Value Pick #2: Nurullo Aliev by Decision (-110 at BetMGM)
In a fresh matchup devoid of historical data, I turn to the career resumes of Mike “Beast Boy” Davis and “Tajik Eagle” Nurullo Aliev. Davis is a formidable opponent with a 12-3 record and a slight size advantage. However, Aliev represents an entirely different class of challenge.
The Tajikistan native is an unblemished 11-0 in his professional MMA career. Although he gives up a few centimeters in both height and reach, his perfect track record demonstrates an elite ability to impose his will.
Instead of paying the -225 moneyline, I would rather isolate Aliev’s most likely path: takedowns, control time, and extended grappling sequences across three rounds. Davis is durable enough to make a finish less automatic, but Aliev’s wrestling gives him a clear route to banking minutes and winning on the scorecards.
UFC Prelims Best Bet: Dustin Jacoby by Decision
- UFC Prelims Value Pick #3: Dustin Jacoby by Decision (+240 at BetMGM)
Jacoby is another prelim favorite I am willing to back, but I prefer the method market to laying his -180 moneyline. Muhammad Said is dangerous enough to keep this from being a max-confidence play, but Jacoby’s veteran striking, composure, and experience against UFC-level opposition give him the cleaner path over three rounds.
The read here is Jacoby by decision if he can keep the fight at kickboxing range, manage distance, and avoid extended grappling exchanges. His experience should help him win minutes without needing to force a finish, making the decision prop the better way to play this prelim favorite.
UFC Prelims Best Bet: Cody Gibson Moneyline
- UFC Prelims Value Pick #4: Cody Gibson Moneyline (+400 at BetMGM)
Gibson is the upset pick I would separate from the favorite-based prelim plays. Abdul Hussein deserves to be favored at -550, but that number implies a very high win probability, while Gibson at +400 only needs to win this fight a little more than 20% of the time to make the bet viable from a value perspective.
The main argument for Gibson is that he has the veteran skill set to make this fight messier than the market suggests. He has been in enough high-paced, scramble-heavy fights to know how to survive bad positions, extend exchanges, and force opponents to work harder than they want to. If Hussein cannot get an early finish or dominant control sequence, Gibson’s experience becomes more valuable as the fight wears on.
This is not a pick I would rank anywhere near Walker, Aliev, or Jacoby in terms of confidence. Hussein is the more likely winner, and the price tells us that clearly. But as a small-stakes underdog shot, Gibson is interesting because his path does not require him to be the cleaner athlete minute-to-minute.
He needs durability, clinch resistance, timely scrambles, and enough boxing volume to steal rounds if Hussein slows down. For that reason, I would treat Gibson as a true upset special rather than a core prelim bet. It is a sprinkle-only play, but it is the underdog moneyline I would be most willing to take from the current prelim board.
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