J.J. McCarthy Trade Odds: Are the Vikings Stuck With Him Now?

• J.J. McCarthy went 5 of 10 in Minnesota’s preseason loss to Baltimore
• His trade market shifted dramatically on Saturday night
• Keep reading for the J.J. McCarthy trade odds and my prediction on where he lands

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J.J. McCarthy needed a good night on Saturday. He got the opposite.

The Vikings lost 13-3 to the Ravens. McCarthy played 18 snaps over four series, went 5 of 10 for 81 yards, took a sack and three hits, and left the field walking gingerly.

The market didn’t wait around. His trade price on Kalshi had sat in the same place since March, and one quarter of bad football sent it spiralling. Keep reading for the full numbers and my prediction on what Minnesota does.

J.J. McCarthy Trade Odds

When	Implied Chance of Trade by Dec. 1
Before Saturday kickoff	31%
Current	14%

Prices as of August 22, 2026, on Kalshi. Sign up with the Kalshi promo code DIME to trade this market.

McCarthy started the day with a 31% chance of getting dealt. He’s down to 14% tonight. For most of the summer that number sat near 80%.

You can buy Yes at 32 cents or No at 76. The market asks whether he gets dealt before Dec. 1, so this runs well past Week 1.

Watch what you’re actually paying, though. The last sale went through at 14 cents, but the cheapest Yes offer is 32. Not many people are touching this market right now.

What the Ravens Loss Did to McCarthy’s Trade Odds

This was an audition. Every team that might want McCarthy had eyes on how he looked now that he’s behind Kyler Murray.

He missed open receivers all night. His first pass sailed over Myles Price on the sideline. He hit Tai Felton for 50 yards to reach the Ravens’ 10, then overthrew the end zone twice and turned it over on downs.

Every J.J. McCarthy dropback from preseason game #2 against the Ravens.

5/10, 81 yards, 1 sack, and a 19-yard completion negated by a holding call.

QB2 or QB3? pic.twitter.com/mrUSPRmMbv

— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) August 22, 2026

“Those are just throws I’ve got to make,” McCarthy said after the game.

Two preseason games in, he’s 9 of 17 for 115 yards with no touchdowns. Carson Wentz, the guy sitting behind him on the depth chart, is 18 of 25 for 173 yards and a score.

Then there’s the health. Kevin O’Connell said McCarthy got “a little banged up” and pulled him a drive early. He already missed his rookie year with a torn meniscus, then seven games last season with an ankle sprain, a concussion and a hairline fracture in his throwing hand.

Teams pay for quarterbacks who stay on the field. That’s the part of his file nobody can talk around.

Are the Vikings Stuck With McCarthy?

• Prediction: McCarthy stays in Minnesota (No at 76¢ on Kalshi)

A trade looked like the safe assumption all offseason. One bad night flipped it, and the new price is much closer to how I see this playing out.

Start with what Minnesota wants back. The Vikings won’t hand him over for a late-round pick, and no team is giving up a middle-round pick for a quarterback coming off 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

There’s no money pushing a deal either. McCarthy is owed $1.075 million this year and $3.775 million in 2027, with a fifth-year option after that. Cheap backups are worth keeping.

Then there’s Murray. He’s missed big chunks of two of the past three seasons, so Minnesota needs someone who can step in. Look around the NFL starting QB odds and you’ll see how fast these rooms fall apart.

McCarthy also wants to stay. “This is the place I want to be,” he said after losing the job. “And I love every single person in this building.”

J.J. McCarthy 2025 Season Stats

Stat	Total
Starts	10
Record	6-4
Completion %	57.6
Passing Yards	1,632
TD-INT	11-12
Passer Rating	72.6

The Chargers are the one name that still makes sense, since Jim Harbaugh coached him at Michigan and has raved about him. The Rams need a backup for Matthew Stafford, and the Browns and Steelers could let him sit and learn.

None of that is happening this week, though. His value is about as low as it gets, and Minnesota knows it.

Friday at Denver gives him one more look, and a strong night would nudge this market back up. He also has until Dec. 1 for a team to come calling, so nothing gets settled this weekend.

Somebody has to want him first, though, and after Saturday nobody has a reason to pick up the phone. That’s why I’ll pay 76 cents on him staying put.

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