- UFC Fight Night prelims drop early on Saturday, packing massive betting value
- Heavy favorites dominate the moneyline, but method-of-victory props offer hidden upside
- See my UFC Prelims Picks, Predictions and Best Bets for Serbia including Spasic vs Luciano
The octagon touches down at Beogradska Arena in Belgrade, Serbia this morning. This UFC Prelims card kicks off bright and early at 10:15 am ET on Paramount+. While casual fans wait around for the main event, sharp bettors know the early slate is an absolute goldmine.
My favorite spot on this preliminary card is the strawweight banger between Marina Spasic and Stephanie Luciano. The juice on the moneyline is squeezed dry, but there is tremendous value hiding in the prop markets if you know where to look.
I have combed through the board to find the most exploitable lines. Let’s dive into my favorite UFC Prelims picks, predictions and best bets for Serbia including Spasic vs Luciano.
UFC Prelims Odds
Odds as of fight week at BetMGM. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.
The board is stacked with short favorites. Rebecki at -700, Milosevic at -500, and Oliveira at -350 are the three heaviest chalk plays, which pushes the value into the method and distance markets rather than the moneyline. Buzukja vs Grad is the closest thing to a true pick’em on the prelims.
UFC Prelims Predictions
UFC Prelims Best Bet: Stephanie Luciano by Decision
- UFC Prelims Picks #1: Stephanie Luciano by Decision (-130 at BetMGM)
I am incredibly confident in Luciano, but laying -325 on the moneyline is a quick way to nuke your bankroll. Instead, I am looking straight at the method of victory market. Spasic is tough, but Luciano possesses the stylistic advantages needed to dictate the pace over three hard-fought rounds.
She will control the center of the cage, rack up significant strikes, and keep the judges nodding in her favor. Spasic should survive to hear the final horn, which is exactly why the decision is the play. Taking Luciano on the scorecards at -130 offers serious value while avoiding the heavy moneyline juice.
UFC Prelims Best Bet: Jovan Leka by KO/TKO
- UFC Prelims Picks #2: Jovan Leka by KO/TKO (+225 at BetMGM)
Fighting on his home turf in Serbia, Leka is a -275 favorite over Alexander Poppeck. I am not eating that kind of chalk on a heavyweight prelim. Heavyweight bouts are notoriously volatile, and these big men usually look to end things early and often.
Leka has the raw power to end this inside the distance, and the home crowd at Beogradska Arena will only amplify his aggression. Grabbing Leka by knockout at +225 is a massive step up in value. He will impose his will, find the chin, and close the show early.
UFC Prelims Best Bet: Bogdan Grad Moneyline
- UFC Prelims Picks #3: Bogdan Grad Moneyline (-210 at BetMGM)
Dennis Buzukja and Bogdan Grad are set for a phenomenal featherweight scrap. Grad comes in as a -210 favorite, and I am comfortable laying that price since it keeps us under my strict -250 threshold for straight moneyline bets.
Grad’s recent form shows he dictates the terms of engagement perfectly. Buzukja is a gritty competitor, but he tends to let his opponents control the tempo. Grad will use his superior grappling and high striking volume to pull ahead on the scorecards. I fully expect the Austrian to leave the octagon with his hand raised.
UFC Prelims Best Bet: Michael Oliveira by KO/TKO
- UFC Prelims Picks #4: Michael Oliveira by KO/TKO (-150 at BetMGM)
Michael Oliveira steps into this welterweight clash against Oban Elliott as a hefty -350 favorite. Backing him straight up offers zero value, so I am turning to the prop market once again to find a playable angle.
Oliveira throws heat from the opening bell, and Elliott is going to struggle to weather the early storm. The Brazilian has a proven track record of securing violent finishes, and I expect him to find the target quickly here. Getting -150 for Oliveira to win by knockout is the smartest mathematical play.
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