- Lorenzo Musetti is a massive -400 favorite over Arthur Fery in Round 1 action at the US Open
- Fery’s impressive 2026 ATP Race form suggests he can keep the margins incredibly tight
- See my Fery vs Musetti picks, predictions and updated odds below
It’s a fascinating Round 1 matchup at the US Open between Arthur Fery and Lorenzo Musetti on Tuesday.
Musetti holds the clear pedigree advantage, sitting at No. 14 in the world with 2,605 ATP points, and the online sportsbooks see it as such, making him a hefty favorite.
However, the 2026 ATP Singles Race tells a vastly different story: Fery ranks No. 25 with 1,373 points, ahead of Musetti at No. 30 with 1,245.
Fery vs Musetti goes at 12:30pm ET from Grandstand Court at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York.
You can catch the action on ESPN in the United States, while Canadians can tune in on TSN.
Fery vs Musetti Picks and Predictions
- Pick: Fery +5.5 Games (46¢ / +117 at Kalshi)
As reported by Tennis Abstract and Tennis Ratio, Musetti leads the current hard-court Elo comparison, but only 1,821.3 to 1,733.8. That 87.5-point gap is meaningful, yet it is much narrower than the official ranking gap.
Fery’s 1.554 Match Efficiency and 1.379 Dominance Ratio also exceed Musetti’s 1.329 and 1.316 over the past 52 weeks. Fery wins more return points against first serves (32.8% to 29.4%), wins more return games (26.4% to 24.1%), creates more break points per game (0.66 to 0.60), and wins pressure points on return at a higher rate (40.4% to 39.8%).
Fery’s recent hard-court results reinforce that case. He beat Chris Hewitt, Mayot Rottgering and Aleksandar Kovacevic in Winston-Salem before losing the final to Ivan Buse, then defeated James Duckworth in Cincinnati and pushed Alex de Minaur to a deciding-set tiebreak. Musetti also arrived with quality wins over Daniel Altmaier, Zheng Ming and Jaime Faria in Cincinnati, but Frances Tiafoe beat him in straight sets.
Those results make a six-game-or-more Musetti victory less compelling than the 78¢ moneyline suggests. Fery +5.5 is the preferred side at roughly 46¢, with a competitive four-set match well within the range of outcomes.
- Pick: Over 37.5 Total Games (45¢ / +122 at Kalshi)
The total has moved higher than the previously considered 35.5 games, but the over remains playable at 45¢ because the matchup offers several routes to 38 or more games.
Musetti brings the stronger serve-hold profile, winning 83.4% of service games over the past 52 weeks, while Fery has been the more effective returner by several measures. Fery’s 81.1% service-games-won rate is solid enough to keep sets close, and his recent Cincinnati match against de Minaur went the distance.
Over 37.5 needs either a competitive four-set match or a long five-setter; it no longer has the same cushion as Over 35.5. Still, Fery can cover +5.5 without winning, and Musetti can advance while conceding tight sets. That combination makes the over a worthwhile secondary bet at 45¢. I would pass on Over 42.5 at 28¢, which requires a more extreme match script, and I would not chase the 69¢ price on Musetti to win the first set.
Fery vs Musetti Odds
Odds as of Sept 1 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.
This is the first meeting between these two on the ATP Tour.
Musetti enters as the overwhelming betting favorite, set at -400 on the moneyline. Taking him to cover the spread of 5.5 games comes in at a more digestible -138 odds.
A Fery upset pays out at +300, and the juice is still decent at +100 if you take him on the spread at +5.5.
The total is set at 35.5 games, with the Over paying out at -125, and the Under at -110 odds.
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