- Michael Penix returns from an ACL injury in 2025
- Without Penix, the Falcons have yet to run a red-zone play this season
- Continue reading for my Falcons vs Packers final picks
The Green Bay Packers look to build on a recent victory as they host the winless Atlanta Falcons on September 24, 2026, at 08:15 PM ET. Stepping onto the gridiron at Lambeau Field, the Packers enter this conference clash as clear home favorites.
Neither team has looked particularly good this season. The Falcons have more pick-sixes thrown than offensive touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Packers blew a double-digit lead in Week 1 and needed an Aaron Glenn-assisted miracle to win in Week 2.
Meanwhile, the Falcons are desperate to snap a two-game losing skid. I always look for angles when a home team finds its footing against a road underdog hunting for its first win. I will break down the crucial betting angles, exploring seasonal trends, roster philosophies, and key injury reports to find value before kickoff.
Best Bets for Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons
My Week 3 TNF picks include the moneyline plus two markets tied to the expected game script: Green Bay striking first and Atlanta’s offense struggling to reach the 14-point threshold.
- Primary pick: Green Bay Packers to win (70¢ at Polymarket)
The moneyline serves as the foundational anchor of this card because Green Bay pairs significant home-field advantage with a decisive statistical mismatch in the trenches. At 70¢ on Polymarket (70.0% implied probability), bettors gain immediate positive expected value (+EV) against traditional sportsbooks pricing the Packers’ moneyline at -325 to -330 (76.5% to 76.7% implied).
Matt LaFleur’s Packers are 11–3 straight-up in their last 14 home games as favorites of 6+ points, routinely commanding time of possession. Conversely, Atlanta enters averaging a meager 8.0 PPG while converting just 18.2% of third-down attempts and allowing a high 38.5% pressure rate on dropbacks. With Green Bay’s front four poised to consistently force third-and-longs in a hostile Lambeau environment, the Packers possess an exceptionally high floor to secure the outright victory.
Lukas Van Ness is enjoying a breakout season for the Packers. The fourth-year edge rusher has 2.5 sacks and five quarterback hits. He ranks among the top five in the NFL in pressures, and he should be a fantastic Robin to Micah Parsons’ Batman once the perennial All-Pro returns next month.
- Pick 2: Green Bay Packers to score first TD (62¢ at Kalshi)
With Atlanta repeatedly sputtering on opening scripts, Green Bay is primed to strike first and control early tempo. At 62¢ on Kalshi, this market offers strong value based on Matt LaFleur’s proven scripted-drive efficiency: dating back to last season, Green Bay has scored a touchdown on its first or second offensive possession in 62.5% of home contests.
In sharp contrast, Atlanta has failed to score a single first-quarter touchdown this season while averaging just 3.8 plays per opening drive on the road. Green Bay’s aggressive pass rush creates a high likelihood of a quick three-and-out on Atlanta’s opening possession, setting up Jordan Love with favorable starting field position to punch in the game’s initial score.
There is some element of the unknown with Michael Penix stepping in for Cooper Rush. Rush leads the NFL with four interceptions, and he lost a fumble in Week 2. Adding in Jack Strand’s relief appearance last week, the Falcons have a team passer rating of 38.2 this season. In other words, the Falcons would have a higher passer rating if they spiked the ball on each snap.
- Pick 3: Both teams DO NOT score 14+ points (35¢ at Kalshi)
Considering Atlanta’s extreme offensive dysfunction, taking the “No” contract on both teams reaching 14+ points at 35¢ (implying just a 35.0% probability / +186 payout) presents massive mathematical asymmetry. Atlanta has failed to clear 13 points in either of its first two contests (scoring 13 against Pittsburgh and just 3 versus Carolina) while producing an anemic 4.1 yards per play.
Historical betting data shows that road underdogs averaging single-digit scoring through two weeks fail to reach the 14-point plateau in 58.3% of subsequent road matchups against top-half scoring defenses. Fading Atlanta’s ability to generate two touchdowns in a physical Lambeau night game offers elite risk-adjusted upside against an underpriced 35¢ line.
While Minnesota was able to score 39 points thanks to some short fields, the Packers have been pretty sturdy defensively. The Packers are fifth in yards allowed this season, ranking fourth in yards allowed per pass and second in yards allowed per rush.
Weather Impacts on Packers vs Falcons Betting
- Kickoff Time: 8:15 PM ET (7:15 PM CT local)
- Temperature at Kickoff: 57°F (cooling to 51°F by final whistle)
- Conditions: Clear to partly cloudy skies with low humidity (\~68%)
- Precipitation: < 10% chance of rain (dry turf conditions throughout)
- Wind: 6 to 9 mph out of the North-Northwest, with occasional gusts under 12 mph
While late-season Lambeau games often feature sub-freezing temperatures that degrade grip and football elasticity, late-September conditions remain very mild. Temperatures hovering in the mid-50s provide optimal playing conditions, avoiding the stiff, frozen ball that typically deflates yards-per-attempt metrics in November and December.
Sustained winds below 15 mph show virtually zero statistical correlation with reduced passing efficiency or lower game totals. With wind speeds projected in the single digits (6–9 mph), Jordan Love and Michael Penix Jr will have unhindered deep-ball trajectory, and specialists will not face tricky crosswinds on field goal attempts.
With clear skies, dry turf, and light breezes, weather will not act as a natural suppressor on the 44.5-point total. Offensive execution—specifically Atlanta’s ability to sustain third downs against Green Bay’s pass rush—will drive the scoring output rather than environmental elements.
The post Final Picks for Falcons vs Packers Plus TNF Weather Forecast appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
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