- Taylor Fritz is a large -500 favorite vs Francisco Cerundolo in Round 3 men’s singles action at the US Open
- Fritz and Cerundolo split their two previous meetings, but both were played on clay
- See my Fritz vs Cerundolo prediction, picks, with the latest betting lines below
The upcoming US Open Men Singles Round of 32 clash features world No. 10 Taylor Fritz taking on No. 25 Francisco Cerundolo.
For bettors, the most critical question is whether Cerundolo can disrupt the American’s heavy baseline rhythm.
Fritz is a heavy -500 favorite over the Argentinian, and enters with immense top-10 pedigree and 3,475 ATP points. However, the CErundolo has already beaten Fritz once and pushed him in their other meeting.
Action gets underway Saturday at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York — though the time and court have yet to be determined.
Catch the action on ESPN in the United States or tune into TSN if you’re in Canada.
Fritz vs Cerundolo Prediction and Picks
- Pick: Cerundolo Moneyline (+400 at Kalshi)
Fritz remains the more likely winner, but the price appears to overstate the gap. Tennis Abstract’s Aug. 31 Elo table rates Fritz at 1,958.6 overall and 1,888.6 on hard courts, compared with Cerundolo at 1,875.0 overall and 1,823.4 on hard courts. Those differences—84 points overall and 65 on the surface—support Fritz as a favorite, but not necessarily the roughly 75% win probability implied by a -300 price, especially in a best-of-five match where Cerundolo has more room to make the matchup uncomfortable.
The 52-week Tennis Ratio comparison also identifies a path for the underdog: Cerundolo creates 0.74 break points per game to Fritz’s 0.49, wins 30.3% of return games compared with 15.2%, and wins 42.5% of pressure points on return versus Fritz’s 32.8%. Fritz’s serve is the clear counter—he wins 88.8% of service games and 79.5% of first-serve points, versus 76.7% and 69.1% for Cerundolo—but the Argentine’s return pressure can keep sets close and create opportunities for a momentum swing.
Cerundolo has already reached the Round of 32 by beating Jan-Lennard Struff in five sets, while Fritz has advanced without dropping a set. That contrast makes Fritz the safer side, yet it does not erase the value case at +400. Given the 1-1 head-to-head record, Cerundolo’s superior return-pressure profile, and a hard-court Elo gap far smaller than the market gap, the Argentine remains the preferred small-stakes upset pick.
Fritz vs Cerundolo Odds
Odds as of Sept 3 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.
These two competitors have met twice, with each player winning once. Cerundolo won their 2023 French Open round-of-32 match on clay, while Fritz prevailed in their 2024 Madrid quarterfinal, also on clay. With only two prior meetings, this head-to-head record offers useful context but limited predictive value.
The matchup dynamic is that Cerundolo can disrupt the American’s rhythm enough to take sets and generate break chances. Fritz’s elite serve and top-tier power ultimately carried him through the decisive third set in Madrid, but Cerundolo won their earlier meeting in four sets. That split makes the underdog a credible threat rather than a purely speculative play.
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