- New York won Game 1 after a dominant showing from Breanna Stewart
- However, I am backing the league-best Lynx to even the series
- Continue reading for my Lynx vs Liberty best bets and prop bets
The Minnesota Lynx (33-11, No. 1 seed) are on the brink of elimination as the New York Liberty (26-18, No. 8 seed) look for a key upset. The squads will battle in Game 2 at 8:30 PM ET on September 29. USA Network and CNBC will carry the broadcast.
After winning the regular-season series 2-1, the Liberty overcame a first-half deficit to knock off the favored Lynx in Minnesota in Game 1. Breanna Stewart scored 34 points and nabbed 12 rebounds in the win. Leonie Fiebich came in clutch with a quartet of threes, and the Liberty shot 51% from the field.
On the Lynx side, Courtney Williams and Olivia Miles scuffled with 3-for-12 shooting nights. Kayla McBride led the Lynx in scoring with 14 points. Minnesota shot 42% from the field and 35% from three.
Keep reading for my Lynx vs Liberty best bet and prop bets as well as look at the Kalshi prediction market.
Lynx vs Liberty Picks & Best Bets
- Under 174.5 (52¢, Kalshi)
Game 1 went under a total of 175.5 as the Liberty and Lynx combined for 166 points. I expect this trend to continue as the Lynx search for a continuation of their season. Minnesota had the league’s No. 3 scoring defense, and the average Lynx game featured 174.5 points – right in line with Kalshi market.
- Lynx Moneyline (60¢, Kalshi)
Instead of fiddling with the spread, I am just taking the favorites to take care of business and push the series back to Minnesota for a winner-take-all game. Minnesota had an absurd 18-4 record on the road this season. New York had a healthy 14-8 home record, but the Liberty dropped its last two home games of the season. The last time the Liberty won at home was on August 29 before the WNBA took an international break.
Lynx vs Liberty Player Props to Target
- Breanna Stewart to Score 20+ Points (68¢, Kalshi)
The two-time MVP has averaged 20.8 points per game this season. She poured in 34 points in Game 1, going 11-for-18 from the field and connecting on a pair of threes. In the regular season, Stewart scored 20 points in 22 of 42 games played. She had a season-high of 36 points against the Lynx on July 3.
Stewart toppled 20 points in two out of three matchups against the Lynx. Other than her 36-point outburst, she scored 17 points on July 11 and 24 points on September 18. Stewart has four straight games overall with at least 24 points. Kalshi also offers markets for Stewart to score 25 points (40¢) and 30 points (19¢)
- Kayla McBride to Score 15 Points (64¢, Kalshi)
McBride only scored 14 points in Game 1, but she put up 12 shots (5-for-12) and seven threes (2-for-7). She averaged 17.6 points per game in the regular season with an elite 41.2% mark from three-point land.
I like McBride’s shooting floor as she knocked down 92.3% of her free throws this season. Given 10 shots, McBride should clear 15 points. She scored at least 15 points in 26 of 44 games this season. She beat the number in all three regular-season matchups with the Lynx, scoring 18, 25, and 16 points.
Lynx vs Liberty Odds
Lines from Kalshi as of Tuesday, September 29, at 5:29 PM ET.
The Lynx are trading at 60¢ to win on Tuesday night while the Liberty can be had at 41¢. For Lynx bettors, this means a $10 wager would garner a $16 payout with a win. Liberty bettors could turn a $10 bet into a max payout of $23.41.
The spread is set at Lynx -4.5, trading at 45¢. Those looking to back the Liberty can take the home team at +4.5 for a 56¢ price.
The total is set at 174.5 points with the over priced at 49¢ and the under priced at 52¢.
WNBA Playoff Bracket
The winner of Lynx vs Liberty will advance to the semifinals to face the winner between the Atlanta Dream and Washington Mystics. The Dream took Game 1 at home, and Washington will have a chance to reply in Game 2 at home. The first round is a three-game series while the semifinals is a best-of-five. The WNBA Finals is a seven-game set that begins on October 17.
Minnesota is still the favorite in 2026 WNBA Championship Odds despite being down 1-0 to New York. The Liberty are now fifth in odds, and they have two chances to knock out Minnesota.
Behind Minnesota, the Las Vegas Aces and Golden State Valkyries are second and third in odds, respectively. The aforementioned Dream are fourth. The Aces, Valkyries, and Dream lead their respective series 1-0.
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