- The Milwaukee Brewers have another opportunity to win the World Series in Game 5 Wednesday
- I’m searching for the best MLB player props for this tilt in Tampa Bay, following a Rays win in Game 4
- Keep reading for Brewers vs Rays odds and props for Milwaukee vs Tampa Bay October 28th
Fresh off a heart-stopping 4-3, extra-inning walk-off triumph that kept their World Series hopes alive, the Tampa Bay Rays fight to stave off elimination once more as they host the Milwaukee Brewers for Game 5 of the World Series tonight at Tropicana Field (8:00 PM ET, FOX).
With their ace on the bump, Milwaukee is listed as a -161 road favorite in the MLB odds, while the run total sits at a low 6.5. Yesterday’s marathon depleted both bullpens and Tampa Bay ace Drew Rasmussen toes the rubber for Game 5. Below, I break down my top-three choices in the MLB player props market for World Series Game 5.
MIL vs TB Player Prop Picks for Game 5
Here are my top three MLB player props to target for Wednesday’s Game 5 at the Trop.
Jackson Chourio 2+ Total Bases (+117 at NOVIG)
At +117, the market implies a 46.1% chance that Jackson Chourio logs at least two total bases. That presents clear positive expected value against his actual postseason baseline, where he has cleared 1.5 total bases in seven of 12 playoff contests (58.3%) and in all four World Series games (10-for-20, twelve total bases).
While his full regular season cover rate sat at 39.4% (50 of 127 games), Chourio’s current role near at the top of the order and his hard-contact surge give him a true probability modeled closer to 50% to 52% against TB, making +117 a solid plus-money wager.
Yandy Diaz 1+ Hits (-203 at KALSHI)
Yandy Diaz steps into the box against Brewers phenom Jacob Misiorowski, who holds a terrifying 1.80 ERA and .157 opponent batting average across 174.2 season innings. Misiorowski’s elite 12.98 K/9 rate challenges any hitter. However, Diaz thrives at home. He has surpassed 0.5 hits in six of his last seven contests at Tropicana Field, generating an 86% cover rate and averaging 1.1 hits per game.
A line of -203 translates to a 67.0% implied probability. That hurdle is well supported by Díaz’s track record, particularly at Tropicana Field, where he recorded a hit in 62 of 85 games (72.9%) while batting .315. He has also posted base hits in ten of 13 postseason games overall (76.9%) and all but one of seven playoff contests at home.
Even with Misiorowski on the bump, Díaz’s elite zone contact rate and two-strike discipline establish a true hit probability around 72% to 74%, providing enough margin to justify laying the steep price.
David Hamilton 1+ Hits (-117 at NOVIG)
Priced at -117, the implied probability stands at 53.9%. David Hamilton’s regular season baseline suggests caution, as he recorded a hit in only 58 of 121 games (47.9%). However, his expanded postseason sample tells a vastly different story: he has tallied at least one hit in six of eight playoff appearances (75.0%), batting .348 with a .652 slugging mark, and he has safely recorded base knocks in both Games 3 and 4 at Tropicana Field.
Weighing his long-term 48% baseline against his current lineup protection and hot streak pushes his true single-game hit probability right to roughly 54% to 56%, turning a coin-flip line into a viable momentum play against Tampa Bay.
MIL vs TB Hitting Props for Game 5
The odds in the table are from Kalshi with cent-based prices converted to American odds. Yes prices are shown as over odds (O), and No prices as under odds (U).
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